Peter Goodburn: The Rise and Fall of King Dollar

Tom welcomes back Peter Goodburn from WaveTrack International to discuss his analysis of the financial markets. Goodburn's focus is on Elliott Wave analysis and he believes that the current market environment can be understood as a binary relation to tariffs. If tariffs continue, stock markets will decline, and gold prices will rise. Conversely, if negotiations cool off, the stock market may recover, but gold prices may experience profit-taking sell-offs.

Goodburn also shared his perspective on interest rates, suggesting that Treasury yields are heading lower due to the perception of increasing inflation risks. He believes this decrease in yields indicates that a US downturn is likely, although he did not specify a timeframe for when this may occur. The interview also touched upon copper prices, with Goodburn noting that China's position on strategic metals could impact their availability and pricing going forward.

As the conversation concludes, Goodburn emphasized the importance of following price levels and wave patterns instead of being overly reliant on news flow to make trading decisions.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 - Introduction
1:00 - Analysis of the Markets
3:27 - S&P Charts & Sentiment
10:37 - Nasdaq Outlook
13:04 - Blow-Off Technicals
17:42 - Global Capital Rotation
24:54 - Global Market Surveys
25:37 - Dr. Copper & Tariffs
31:38 - China & Rare Earths
34:26 - Gold's Strength & Inflows
38:12 - Gold Pullback Coming?
44:47 - US Dollar Thoughts
48:30 - Jerome Powell & Rates
51:13 - Weak Canadian Peso
54:55 - Treasuries & Yield Spikes
59:22 - Tariffs & Inflation
1:04:50 - Crude Oil Prices
1:09:06 - Wrap Up

Guest Links:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/ElliottWave_WTI
Website: https://wavetrack.com

Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International. His trading experience spans back to the late 1970s working then in the commodities business for exchange members and their clients. In those earlier years of his career, he created the first OTC (over-the-counter) copper option product based upon the Comex (New York) contract around the mid-eighties, and in the same period, devised Opval, an option-evaluation software program that is currently used in many of the major market-making institutions of today.

His fascination with price activity and how that related to the news flow within the markets captured his imagination early on. Peter's first annual diary of 1978 records his notes and remarks on how the interaction and relationship of fundamental news and price movement often contradicted themselves. Some years later, this was to ignite his interest in causal theory and naturally, the Elliott Wave Principle.

He was first introduced to the Elliott Wave Principle in the mid-eighties listening to daily updates of financial commentary by Bob Beckman on LBC radio (London Broadcasting Company). This led him to the work of Frost/Prechter and their first re-publication of R.N.Elliott's (1871-1948) original treatise of 1938 (The Wave Principle) and 1946 (Nature’s Law – The Secret of the Universe), entitled "the Elliott Wave Principle" (1978). Peter’s a self-proclaimed purist of the Wave Principle but has developed a unique approach of geometric Ratio & Proportion that is instrumental in maintaining a dispassionate and objective view of the market. He has applied this analysis to every major asset class over the years, stocks, bonds, currencies & commodities, and promotes the importance of interdependency of the combined group.

Peter has been a member of the U.K.’s Society of Technical Analysts (STA) for over twenty-five years and is a Certified Financial Technician recognized by the International Federation of Technical Analysts (IFTA). He has taught the Elliott Wave Principle to students at the London School of Economics as part of the STA’s diploma program and is a member of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles and the Society for Chaos Theory in Psychology and Life Sciences.

He has published many of his forecasts in various journals over the last twenty years including Currency Confidential, Managed Derivatives, Investment Management, The Ringsider, Market Technician, and quoted by many others, including Metal Bulletin, The Speculator, Focus, Fund Investment, International Herald Tribune, and Reuters. It has brought him in contact with the many diverse fields of finance, delivering presentations for major industry governing bodies and many corporate clients.