S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday April 22, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, April 21, 2025, and Outlook for Tuesday, April 22, 2025
Monday Market Recap:

Negative Performance: The market continued its negative trend, with futures gapping lower at the open. The S&P 500 started at S2 (5216), fell to S3 (5143), and found support around 5100, closing down 2.36% on below-average volume.

Key Influences:

Political tensions, including a dispute between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, raised concerns about Fed independence.

Uncertainty around tariffs, trade policies, and geopolitical issues (e.g., China's warning against U.S. trade deals) contributed to market unease.

Technical Indicators:

The VIX rose to 33.82, signaling heightened volatility (above 20 is negative).

Short, intermediate, and long-term trends are negative, with the market far from key moving averages (20, 50, 150, 200 periods).

Momentum oscillators (e.g., MACD, rate of change, TTM squeeze) show extreme negative readings.

Growth stocks underperforming value stocks, with growth down 2.82% and value down 1.94%.

Defensive sectors (e.g., staples, healthcare) outperforming growth sectors (e.g., tech, discretionary).

Economic and Sentiment Data:

Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) fell 0.7%, weaker than expected (-0.4%), signaling potential economic slowdown.

The U.S. dollar weakening despite expectations of strength from protectionist policies.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.41% from 4.33%.

Sentiment slightly improved to 22 from 21, but remains negative.

Sector and Index Performance:

All sectors declined, with staples and healthcare showing relative resilience.

Tech, communication, and discretionary were among the weakest.

Semiconductors (SOX index) and home builders showed significant weakness, raising concerns for tech and the broader market.

Small and mid-cap indices underperforming, with death crosses (50-day MA below 200-day MA) in several indices.

Other Observations:

Margin debt is declining, reflecting cautious sentiment.

Safe-haven assets (gold, treasuries, low-volatility stocks) saw increased flows, as shown by the "Safety Dance Index."

Earnings revisions are trending downward due to economic and tariff concerns.

Tuesday Outlook:

Market Bias: Remains negative across short, intermediate, and long terms.

Economic Calendar: No major reports scheduled for Tuesday. Key reports later in the week include initial jobless claims (Thursday) and consumer sentiment (Friday).

Seasonality: Historically positive for April, but current market dynamics (geopolitical tensions, tariffs, Fed disputes) are overriding seasonal trends.

Key Factors to Watch:

Ongoing Trump-Powell tensions and potential escalation.

Geopolitical developments, particularly around trade and tariffs.

Technical levels: Support at 5100 held on Monday; a break below could test deeper support (e.g., 50% retracement or long-term trend lines).

Potential for volatility, with the VIX above 30 and mixed momentum signals.

Positive Notes:

Parabolic SAR and money flow remain positive.

Financials are weak but holding up better than other sectors.

Negative Notes:

Most technical indicators (e.g., McClellan oscillators, bullish percent indexes, moving average studies) are negative.

Defensive ratios (e.g., staples-to-S&P, discretionary-to-staples) signal a risk-off environment.

Semiconductors and tech weakness could drag the broader market lower.

Conclusion: The market is in a defensive, risk-off mode with no immediate catalysts for a reversal. Tuesday may see continued volatility, with no major economic data to shift sentiment. Investors should monitor geopolitical developments and technical support levels closely.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1MC60Y-aZbVGnmN_lx5F0ObZhcHiL1iDS/view?usp=drive_link

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!