Ukraine Security Guarantees Would be Meaningless w/Lt Col Daniel Davis & Steve Jermy

Apr 17, 2025
Daniel Davis / Deep Dive
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European Security Guarantees Are Weak: The speaker argues that any promises from Europe to provide security guarantees to Ukraine are essentially meaningless because Europe lacks the military capability to back them up.

“Coalition of the Weak”: The phrase "coalition of the willing" is dismissed as misleading; the reality is that European support amounts to a "coalition of the weak."

U.S. Limitations and Political Will: Even the U.S. would struggle to provide credible guarantees due to geographic and political constraints, making it even more implausible for Europeans to step in effectively.

Russia’s Stance on Peacekeepers: If European troops are deployed as peacekeepers in Ukraine, Russia will likely view this as a hostile act and may attack them, as they've already shown willingness to do.

Risk of Escalation: The speaker warns that Russia may deliberately target European troops to send a message, especially if they see it as a continuation of NATO encroachment.

Ceasefire Debate: There’s disagreement over the idea of a ceasefire being a first step toward peace. Russia, the speaker claims, has no interest in a short-term ceasefire that would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm—they want long-term security arrangements instead.

Trump and U.S. Leverage: Trump’s position and threats are seen as lacking real leverage over Russia. The speaker believes the U.S. holds more sway over Europe and Ukraine than over Moscow.

Taurus Missiles and Strategy Confusion: There’s confusion and criticism about Germany potentially sending Taurus missiles to Ukraine. Long-range missiles, the speaker argues, haven’t changed the battlefield and only risk provoking Russia further without strategic benefit.
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