S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday April 21, 2025

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Market Summary for Thursday, April 17, 2025 and Outlook for Monday April 21, 2025
Market Performance: The SPX was nearly flat, closing up 0.13% despite a higher open above the daily pivot (5288). Prices fluctuated, dipping below 5,300 and the pivot but holding a slight gain. Volume was below average, even with options expiration ($2.6 trillion).
Technical Indicators: A "death cross" occurred in the Dow (50-day MA fell below 200-day MA), joining other major indexes (S&P, NASDAQ, NASDAQ 100, small/mid/micro caps, Wilshire 5000, bank ETF) in a bearish long-term trend. Momentum oscillators (e.g., MACD, slope oscillator) and moving average studies remain extremely negative across short, intermediate, and long terms. Stochastic RSI shows some positive momentum, but most indicators lean bearish.
Market Sentiment: The VIX dropped to 29.65 (still above 20, indicating fear). Sentiment improved to 21 (from 14) but remains extremely negative. The market is defensive, with staples, energy, real estate, and utilities outperforming tech, communication, and discretionary sectors. Growth underperforming value, signaling caution.
Economic Data:
Housing Starts: 1.324M (below expected 1.418M, down from 1.494M).
Building Permits: 1.482M (above expected 1.455M, up from 1.459M).
Philly Fed Index: -26.4 (much weaker than expected 10, down from 12.5).
Jobless Claims: 215K (better than expected 225K, down from 224K); continuing claims rose to 1.885M (from 1.844M).
Employment remains stable, but housing and manufacturing suggest economic weakness.
Other Factors: Rising 10-year yields (4.33% from 4.28%) and concerns about tariffs, trade wars, and inflation are fueling uncertainty. The dollar index saw a death cross, and the euro is outperforming. UnitedHealthcare’s poor earnings dragged the Dow lower.
Sector/Stock Highlights: Defensive sectors (energy, staples, real estate, utilities) led gains. Tech saw inflows despite weakness (e.g., Nvidia -2.87%, Google -1.42%). FAANG stocks are mostly in downtrends, except Netflix, which looks stronger.
Outlook for Monday, April 21, 2025
Market Bias: Negative across short, intermediate, and long terms, with mixed momentum. Oversold conditions exist but lack capitulation signals.
Economic Calendar: Leading Economic Index (LEI) on Monday (minor report). Key reports later in the week include global PMIs, jobless claims (Thursday), and consumer sentiment (Friday).
Seasonality: Slightly positive for April 21 (Dow positive, S&P/NASDAQ neutral to positive), with potential volatility post-options expiration week but seasonally positive.
Risks: Geopolitical tensions, tariffs, trade wars, and political uncertainty (e.g., Trump vs. Fed) could drive volatility. Markets may consolidate sideways.
Positive Signals: Some internal improvements (e.g., McClellan Oscillators, bullish percent indexes, NASDAQ 100 momentum) and a relatively stable financial sector uptrend offer cautious optimism.
Conclusion: The SPX remains bearish with a defensive posture, driven by death crosses, negative technicals, and economic uncertainty. While some indicators show slight improvement, conviction is low, and risks persist over the holiday weekend.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/14olHk_5tPvxWOKj58EbQhOX9uFsLwffC/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!