S&P 500 Daily Update for Wednesday April 16, 2025

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Market Summary for Tuesday, April 15, 2025, and Outlook for Wednesday, April 16, 2025
Tuesday Market Recap:
Market Action: The market experienced a quiet day with a flat open, trading in a tight range. Prices stayed above the daily pivot (5,408) for the first half, then drifted below it, closing slightly negative (-0.17%) on below-average volume, marking two consecutive days of declining volume.
Key Factors:
Continued subtle improvements but no significant shift from value to growth stocks, which is needed for index strength.
News after market close: NVIDIA faces $5.5 billion in tariffs related to China, causing futures to drop ~1%.
Holiday week (Good Friday closure on Friday) possibly contributing to lower volume and subdued trading.
Technical Indicators:
Short and intermediate-term trends remain negative, with the short-term moving average acting as overhead resistance.
A "death cross" (50-period moving average crossing below 200-period) confirmed in the S&P 500, NASDAQ, small caps, mid-caps, micro caps, and Wilshire 5000, signaling a longer-term downtrend.
VIX at 30.12, down but still elevated (above 20), indicating negative annualized returns.
Many oscillators show extreme negative readings but slight improvement; short-term indicators such as the StochRSI and Rate of Change (50) are extreme positive.
Growth-to-value ratio shows no clear leadership, with value still outperforming growth.
Economic and Sector Highlights:
Interest rates slightly down (10-year yield at 4.32% from 4.36%), dollar back up above 100.
Financial sector supported by positive earnings from Bank of America and Citigroup.
Tariff concerns, especially for semiconductors (e.g., NVIDIA), weighing on AI-related stocks after-hours.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index improved to -8.1 (better than expected -14.8), but underlying data shows inflationary pressures (rising prices paid/received) and declines in all growth-related areas.
Sentiment and Positioning:
Sentiment remains cautious (Fear & Greed at19, AAII extreme low for 7 weeks).
Defensive sectors (value) outperforming offensive (growth), aligning with longer-term trends.
Wednesday Outlook:
Economic Calendar:
Key reports include retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, and jobless/continuing claims (Thursday).
European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, expected to cut rates by 25 basis points.
Market Expectations:
Seasonality for April 16 is neutral to positive for the Dow, positive for S&P and NASDAQ.
Markets closed on Friday for Good Friday; options expire Thursday.
Tariff news and NVIDIA’s impact could continue to pressure tech and AI stocks.
Global trade developments (e.g., EU-U.S. trade talks, Section 232 investigations) may influence sentiment.
Technical Outlook:
Bias remains mixed with no strong conviction. Long-term momentum leans negative but could shift with positive data.
Oversold conditions persist with slight improvements, but resistance at moving averages (e.g., 20-period exponential) remains a hurdle.
Watch for potential volatility from tariff developments or economic data releases.
Conclusion:
The market remains in a negative short- and intermediate-term trend, with a shift to a negative long-term trend. Subtle improvements in oversold conditions and select indicators suggest potential for stabilization, but tariff concerns, holiday-related low volume, and lack of growth stock leadership keep the outlook cautious. Wednesday’s economic data and global trade developments will be critical for direction.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sbYT5RhK_X8HomopPX23p1BamEKEFZ6v/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!