Who Will Prevail in US-China Trade War? Christopher Balding Explains the Playing Field

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This is the full version of Jan Jekielek’s interview with Christopher Balding. The interview was first released on Epoch TV on April 9, 2025.

After Beijing retaliated to U.S. tariffs, President Donald Trump has now announced a tariff hike to 125 percent on Chinese products—and a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs on other countries.

To understand what’s really going on, we’re speaking with one of the world’s leading experts on the Chinese economy.

Christopher Balding was a professor at Peking University’s HSBC School of Business until 2018 when he was fired for pushing back against censorship. Now, he is a senior fellow at the Henry Jackson Society and the founder of New Kite Data Labs.

“I think President Trump wants to push a very deep, ongoing decoupling from China, and I think he wants to promote that decoupling, not just with China, but [by] drawing at least a secondary moat around near allies like Mexico, Canada, parts of Europe, Japan, and South Korea,” Balding says.

CHAPTER TITLES
0:00:00 - Introduction: Trump's Tariff Announcement
0:00:30 - Christopher Balding: Background and Expertise
0:01:04 - Analyzing the 125% Tariff on China
0:02:06 - Trump's Strategic Approach to International Trade
0:03:01 - Evolving Trade Barriers Beyond Traditional Tariffs
0:04:45 - Transshipment and Closing Trade Loopholes
0:08:37 - The Existential Challenge of Global Trade
0:12:31 - China's Mercantilist Trade Policies
0:14:31 - Impact on Competing Economies
0:16:49 - US-China Trade Standoff: Negotiation or Decoupling?
0:20:48 - Bilateral Trade Relationships and Strategic Realignment
0:25:07 - Non-Tariff Barriers and Trade Complexities
0:27:23 - Currency Manipulation Dynamics
0:30:22 - Rationale for Acute Trade Measures
0:33:01 - Multilateral Institutions vs. Bilateral Relationships
0:35:26 - Challenging the Isolationist Narrative
0:37:48 - China's Economic Model and Rural Exploitation
0:44:21 - US Advantages in the Trade Standoff
0:47:20 - Potential Outcomes of Extreme Tariffs
0:51:17 - The Ongoing Cold War with China
0:54:12 - US Treasury Debt and Market Implications
0:57:30 - Market Volatility and Economic Uncertainty
1:00:03 - Potential Impact on the Chinese Economy
1:02:50 - Strategic Negotiations with Other Countries
1:04:53 - Critical Supply Chain Dependencies

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