S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday April 3, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Update for Wednesday, April 2nd, 2025, and the outlook for Thursday, April 3rd:
Wednesday, April 2nd Market Recap:
Market Action: The day started with a lower open, a recurring theme for the week. Prices dipped below the S1 level (5578) and the 5600 mark, but recovered above the daily pivot (5614). The market hit an intraday high near R2 (5706) at around 5700, then faced resistance and fell back to the unchanged level before late-day buying pushed it to close at R1, up 0.67% on below-average volume.
Key Levels: Intraday low was below 5600, high near 5700, closing near 5670 (R1).
Trends: Short and intermediate-term trends remain negative, while the long-term trend is mixed, with the S&P below its 200-day moving average.
After-Hours Reaction: Post-market, tariff announcements from President Trump triggered a sharp decline in futures, with the S&P dropping 3.5% initially, later moderating to just under 3%. This introduced significant uncertainty for Thursday’s open.
Sectors and Indicators: Mega-cap growth stocks performed well during the day, slightly improving growth-to-value ratios, but the market remains defensive. The VIX closed at 21.77 (above 20, indicating negativity), and sentiment is extremely negative at 17 (down from 19, with 25 typically signaling a bottom).
Economic Data: The ADP employment rose by 155,000 jobs (above the expected 120,000), factory orders increased by 0.6% (above the anticipated 0.4%), and weekly MBA mortgage applications fell 1.6%. The 10-year yield rose to 4.20% from 4.16%, and the dollar weakened.
Tariff Impact: Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates (e.g., 25% on autos, steel, and aluminum) for certain countries. This rattled markets after the close, with futures suggesting a gap lower for Thursday.
Outlook for Thursday, April 3rd:
Opening Expectation: A significant gap lower is anticipated due to the tariff news, potentially erasing Wednesday’s gains and testing support levels. The market will likely grapple with uncertainty as it interprets the tariff implications.
Key Factors:
Interest rates and tariff fallout will dominate market focus.
Upcoming economic data includes initial jobless claims and ISM services (above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction).
Friday’s employment report and Fed Chair Powell’s speech will also influence sentiment.
Technical Outlook: The short and intermediate-term trends remain negative, with the long-term trend mixed. Momentum indicators (e.g., smart money indicators, vortex) showed some positivity as of Wednesday’s close, but the tariff reaction could reverse this. Support levels (e.g., 5600, long-term pivot) will likely be tested, with resistance at 5700 and the 200-day moving average.
Seasonality: April historically performs well, but no strong edge exists for April 3rd specifically, with mixed signals for the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq.
Bias: The bias remains mixed due to tariff variables. Evaluation should be data-driven over injecting economic theory. Lett the market dictate direction.
Broader Context:
The market is defensive, with low volume, a high VIX, and extreme negative sentiment signaling caution. Growth stocks showed resilience, but value continues to outperform intraday. Recession indicators are stable for now, though monitored closely via employment and manufacturing data. The tariff policy echoes historical strategies (e.g., Reagan, Hamilton), aiming for long-term gains but causing short-term pain and uncertainty, which markets dislike.
In summary, Wednesday saw a volatile but positive close, overshadowed by a post-market tariff shock that sets up Thursday for a likely turbulent start, with the market’s reaction hinging on how it digests the news overnight and into the European and U.S. sessions.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1a6PV_1UJcWAd_JWLu6rfS3UPH3OK6B0x/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!