The Wire - March 25, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z March 25, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: DANISH PM VOICES CONCERNS REGARDING AMERICAN ASPIRATIONS FOR GREENLAND. PRIVATE GROUP CHAT USED BY SENIOR WHITE HOUSE STAFF ALLEGEDLY LEAKED TO JOURNALIST.//

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-International Events-

Arctic Circle: Following yesterday's complaint from Greenland's Prime Minister, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen also voiced objection to the increasingly frequent visits to Greenland by American diplomats.

AC: During her remarks, PM Frederiksen also cited the 1951 treaty which gave the United States freedom of maneuver throughout Greenland and allowed the construction of military bases as the United States sees fit.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - A minor scandal emerged yesterday following a journalist gaining access to a group chat used by national leadership. The Atlantic ran a story yesterday that their Editor-in-Chief Jeff Goldberg had accidentally been added to a group chat on the Signal app, which allegedly contained VP Vance, SECDEF Hegseth, and other high-ranking officials in the White House.

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Analyst Comments: So far, the claims made in the Atlantic's article (which is locked behind a paywall) are that the group chat involved the posting of classified information. The Atlantic did not include any classified language in their article; all that was posted were private messages that are diplomatically dominating, but otherwise harmless with regards to any sort of classified ideas.

The White House response so far has been dismissive and unconcerned. Most of the response has been to indirectly confirm beyond reasonable doubt that the chat is genuine.

All things considered, there are four main theories regarding this scandal, which are as follows:

1- That this scandal was indeed a real and unintended breach of security, and that government officials really did do all of the damning things in the Atlantic report (such as sharing classified information on Signal).

2- That the group chat wasn't real, and was instead an intentional deception operation set purely with the goal of identifying security leaks.

3- That this was an intentional leak disguised as an accident, but intended to send a very frank and unpolished message to European leaders regarding the situation in Yemen, along with America's general attitude towards Europe.

4- That this was a legitimate security breach that was unintentional, but nobody in the chat actually posted classified information or anything that they wouldn't say in person.

At the moment, theory #4 seems to be the most likely possibility, considering that nothing was said in the screenshots posted by the Atlantic, that the originator wouldn't also say directly to the public.

Theory #2 also bears quite a bit of weight, considering the sheer statistical odds of the Editor of the Atlantic being added to a group chat involving the tightest inner circle in the White House. At face value, the leader of one of the most infamous "media" groups in existence, the Atlantic, being "accidentally" added to an ultra-secret group chat of the highest ranking individuals possible, is preposterous. In short, if the White House wanted to engage in an ambiguity-decreasing deception campaign, adding a journalist "by accident" to a group chat would be the way to do it. This is quite literally a textbook example of the Haversack Ruse, one of the oldest deception actions in the history of warfare.

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz also being the alleged initiator of this error is ironic to the point of adding a lot of credence to the "intentional psyop" theory. Normally, when government officials have been caught using non-approved communications means, they have used pseudonyms...not their real name and profile pictures.

Indeed, Goldberg himself probably couldn't believe his own luck after being added to this group chat, considering that in his own article he waited a couple of weeks before writing yesterday's paywall article on this escapade. He was probably waiting to see if anything particularly juicy was said, and when nothing was, he decided to run the story with what he had to squeeze some sort of revenue out of the incident for the Atlantic.

Conversely, if this was an intentional attempt at a deception campaign, Goldberg not immediately jumping on this story probably wasn't expected...any deception planner would have wanted Goldberg to immediately pounce on the communications that he had seen pertaining to Yemen, and immediately publish the leak. When he didn't, that was probably a bit of a missed opportunity, as if this was a deception campaign, it was aimed at exactly one target...the Iranians. These types of leaks are usually conducted to convey important warnings and policy decisions, and to convey that political leadership is serious,. Considering the wider context of the tensions in the Middle East, if this was a deception event or an attempt to send a message, it was executed with nearly perfect timing, impact, and scope. This is why the "intentional psyop" theory carries so much weight...if it wasn't a psyop, it sure bears all of the hallmarks of such.

However, the possibility does remain for things to be just as simple as they seem, within reason. Remember, it's a new generation of military and political leadership...there's absolutely zero chance that Pete Hegseth and JD Vance would communicate in this group chat without assuming that their messages would be screenshot by some person in the chat. Even if it was just a low level staffer who was minding a politicians phone for them when they went into various secured spaces around Washington. These two in particular were raised in the era of the internet, and it's exceptionally unlikely that they would use their real names in a group chat and expect any sort of privacy, thus they probably knew the chat would get leaked at some point. If this were the early 2000's and involving a secret email server in someone's basement, it would be believable (and a lot more damning). But as it stands it's quite likely that even though this breach may have been unintentional, it's possible that nothing was said that was illegal. This theory is most strongly evidenced by the White House stating that all of the messages in that group chat were unclassified. If this is the case, nothing is stopping the Atlantic from publishing the entire chat history. If the Atlantic does not do this, it would probably be safe to assume that what would ordinarily be a journalistic jackpot (getting added to a group chat with the VP and SECDEF), actually turned out to be completely underwhelming. Considering the absolute security nightmare that resulted from low-level staffers in the previous administration leaking virtually everything they got their hands on, this current admin's White House is a much tighter ship by comparison.

More broadly, when examining the potential for deception operations, a simple analysis of the result may provide some benefit. For instance, what has been the result of this so-called "breach"? So far, nothing was said that would result in embarrassment for anyone involved, in fact these allegedly secret communications indicate quite the contrary. European leaders also have the message loud and clear that the Americans are indeed tired of their shenanigans, and that this posturing is not a bluff. Similar story in Yemen, both the Houthis and the Iranians now know without question the US is bucking for another war, and it might just be them. The "journalist" involved has somehow turned what could have been the Watergate scandal of a millennia into largely a bit of positive PR for the Trump administration. As such, whether it was an intentional leak, or if it was an unintentional leak that was assessed to be inevitable at some point, Jeff Goldberg fulfilled the role of useful idiot quite nicely.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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