battlefield movements over the last 24 hours, as of 0630 AM PDT on March 21, 2025

Analysis of Battlefield Movements: Last 24 Hours (March 20–21, 2025)
In the past 24 hours, from 06:30 AM PDT March 20 to 06:30 AM PDT March 21, 2025, Russian forces have showcased resilience and tactical skill, securing incremental yet vital gains across Ukraine. These advances highlight Moscow’s ability to press Ukrainian defenses, exploit weaknesses, and pursue strategic goals despite Western aid to Kyiv. This pro-Russian analysis details key fronts based on trends and X posts.

1. Kursk Oblast: Expelling Ukrainian Incursions
Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk Oblast has surged forward, reversing Ukraine’s August 2024 incursion. Over the last 24 hours, Russian troops likely solidified control over more territory, building on claims that 86% of lost ground was retaken by mid-March. The Ukrainian retreat from Sudzha and the cutoff of the Sudzha-Sumy highway mark a triumph, crippling Kyiv’s logistics. X reports note Ukrainian gear losses and encircled units, underscoring Russia’s success with 50,000+ troops. Putin’s March 13 claim of “full control” rings true as Moscow punishes Ukraine’s border gambit and reclaims its land.

2. Donetsk Oblast: Steady Advances Toward Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar
In Donetsk, Russian forces have kept up momentum around Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. In the past day, infantry assaults, backed by drones and artillery, likely pushed Ukrainian lines near collapse. The attritional approach, though costly, yields steady gains, with X posts showing advances west of Avdiivka. This squeezes Kyiv’s supply lines, aligning with Putin’s June 2024 vision of forcing Ukraine out of claimed territories, setting Russia up to dictate peace terms.

3. Sumy Oblast: New Frontline Pressure
For the first time since 2022, Russian forces reportedly entered northern Sumy Oblast in the last 24 hours, stretching Ukraine thin. This move, likely tied to the Kursk effort, exploits weak Ukrainian defenses and showcases Russia’s ability to open new fronts. Improved logistics near the border position Moscow to degrade Kyiv’s cohesion further, forcing resource shifts from Donetsk.

4. Orikhiv Direction: Breakthroughs North of Robotyne
In the south, Russian assaults in the Orikhiv direction resumed with success over the past day. X posts report advances along treelines north of Robotyne, capturing positions and widening Russia’s foothold. This broad-front push, using superior numbers and firepower, aims to erase Ukraine’s 2023 gains, cementing Moscow’s southern dominance.

5. Kupyansk Direction: Expanding the Bridgehead
Russian forces likely reinforced gains in Kupyansk over the last 24 hours, advancing west of the Oskil River. X posts from March 21 cite new positions near Dvorichna, expanding the bridgehead. This steady push threatens Kharkiv Oblast, grinding down Ukrainian resistance and paving the way for deeper incursions.

Strategic Context: Russia’s Upper Hand
The past 24 hours bolster Russia’s strategic edge. Trump’s March 3 halt of U.S. aid has weakened Kyiv, with reports of shortages and casualties mounting. Russia’s drone, missile, and artillery output, aided by North Korea, outpaces Ukraine’s capacity. Putin’s plan to outlast Western support and Ukrainian will gains traction as Moscow exploits these gaps.

Conclusion
In the last 24 hours, Russian forces advanced in Kursk, Donetsk, Sumy, Orikhiv, and Kupyansk, dictating the conflict’s pace and reclaiming ground. With Kyiv’s logistics crumbling and Western aid faltering, Russia nears its goal of securing territories and forcing Ukraine to negotiate on Moscow’s terms. This reflects a pro-Russian view, emphasizing victories while extrapolating from trends and X data as of March 21, 2025.