S&P 500 Daily Update for Thursday March 20, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Update for Wednesday, March 19th, 2025, and the outlook for Thursday, March 20th:
Market Performance:
The market showed some improvement, closing up 1.08% on below-average volume.
Prices rose above the R1 level (5647) after the Fed's announcement, reaching above R2 (5679) and 5700, but closed slightly below R2.
Mega Caps performed well, helping drive the market higher.
The VIX fell below 20 to 19.9, which could be seen as positive.

Fed Announcement:
Interest rates were left unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, as expected.
The Fed increased its inflation outlook and lowered growth expectations.
Fed Chairperson Powell's press conference was taken positively by the market, despite adjustments to the Fed's forecast.

Technical Indicators:
Short and intermediate-term trends remain negative, with the market below the 20 and 50-day moving averages.
Long-term trend is mixed.
The S&P 600 Small Cap Index generated a "death cross" (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day).
The short-term trend is weakening, according to the ADX, while some indicators like Stoch RSI and TTM Squeeze show improvements but remain negative.

Economic Factors:
Interest rates fell slightly, with the 10-year yield at 4.26% (down from 4.28%).
The dollar was up, and the 10-to-3-month yield curve is inverted.
Sentiment is still extremely negative, though it ticked up slightly.
The Fed acknowledged rising economic uncertainty due to tariffs and maintained its dual mandate focus.

Outlook for Thursday, March 20th:
The market remains negative in the short and intermediate term, below the 200-day simple moving average.
Long-term support is holding, with signs of improvement in some indicators, but follow-through is needed.
Upcoming economic reports include jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed Index, existing home sales, and the Leading Economic Index (LEI).
Seasonality is positive for March 20th, though post-election year patterns suggest potential weakness.

Key Takeaways:
The market is showing tentative signs of improvement but remains vulnerable to reversal without sustained positive momentum.
Growth-to-value ratios are not improving significantly, and the market is still defensive, with value holding up better.
The Fed's steady stance and Powell's comments provided some stability, but economic uncertainty and inflation concerns persist.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ptgu8H6HDJaqFz5VfO0PmuYtxpy2fc-Z/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!