Are we heading into a recession? Here's what the data shows

Trade tensions have torn into the markets. With stocks sliding into correction territory in the last week, a question emerges: Is a recession next?

Traders on prediction markets — where people wager on such events as the likelihood of a recession — are increasingly betting on an economic downturn. Polymarket, for example, currently places the odds on a recession in 2025 at 40% — a sharp jump of nearly 20 percentage points in under a month.