S&P 500 Weekly Update for March 17-21, 2025

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Summary of the weekly market update for March 10th-14th, 2025, with a look ahead to March 17th-21st:
The stock market experienced another down week, with the Dow dropping 3.1%, NASDAQ 2.4%, S&P 500 2.3%, and Russell small caps 1.5%. The market broke below the 200-day moving average and entered correction territory, though it bounced slightly on Friday. Volume was above average on down days but below average on the Friday uptick, raising technical concerns.
Long-term weekly charts are turning negative, with the ADX trend indicator crossing above its moving average and the red line on top, signaling weakness. This is attributed to growth concerns, weaker-than-expected economic reports, inflation fears, and uncertainty over escalating trade war tensions and tariffs. President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum (up from a proposed 25%), prompting Canada to impose a 25% tariff on electricity exports to the U.S. A potential 200% tariff on European leveraged imports such as wines was also floated in response to EU tariffs on American whiskey.
Inflation data (CPI and PPI) came in lower than expected but failed to reassure the markets, which are focused on future inflation risks from tariffs. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% at its upcoming Wednesday meeting, with a 98% probability per market expectations. Mega-cap stocks underperformed, while value continued to outpace growth, indicating a defensive shift. Interest rates and the dollar remained largely unchanged, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.31% (vs. 4.32% the prior week).
Pockets of hope emerged, including a Friday bounce. Gold hit new highs above $3,000/oz, and bonds have been outperforming stocks recently. Sentiment indicators are at extreme negative levels, which could signal a contrarian buying opportunity if pessimism peaks. However, technical damage is evident across the daily and weekly momentum indicators, with many dropping below key levels such as the 50-week moving average. Growth needs to outperform value, and follow-through is required after Friday’s uptick to shift the outlook.
Looking ahead, historical seasonality suggests the second half of March is often positive, but 2025 has defied trends so far, with the S&P down year-to-date. The market faces uncertainty over tariffs, inflation, and earnings projections, which are declining due to these concerns. Copper remains in an uptrend, suggesting economic optimism, while oil is down, tempering inflation pressure.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VxrLwigreLCZrXcxbY_qb5YE9QIrB141/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!