S&P 500 Daily Update for March 12 2025

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Market Recap for Tuesday, March 11, 2025:
Performance: Another down day with the S&P closing negative, down 0.76% on above-average volume.
Technical Levels: Prices remain below the 200-day moving average, signaling negativity in short, intermediate, and long-term trends. Support was tested at S1 (5,551), with a brief rebound, but the market closed weak.
Market Sentiment: Oversold conditions are emerging (e.g., RSI, ADX, TTM Squeeze), offering glimmers of hope, but sentiment remains extremely negative. The VIX closed at 26.92, indicating persistent fear.
Key Influences:
Earnings warnings from airlines raised concerns about broader economic slowdown.
Geopolitical tensions, including a "trade war" with Trump-era tariffs (e.g., Canada’s 25% tariff on U.S. electricity exports), rattled markets.
Interest rates rose (10-year yield at 4.29%), and the dollar weakened.
Sector Highlights: Mega-cap growth and tech held up better than recently, while value stocks weakened. The S&P is testing long-term support on a weekly chart at a quarterly pivot (5,575).
Economic & Market Context:
Indicators: The market is down over 10% intraday from the February highs, though not yet on a closing basis. Oversold indicators (e.g., StochRSI, CCI) are piling up, but no reversal is confirmed.
Data Points: NFIB Small Business Optimism weakened (100.7 vs. 102.8), while JOLTS Job Openings rose slightly (7.74M vs. 7.5M), suggesting mixed economic signals.
Fed Policy: Rates will remain unchanged, with Fed Chair Powell expressing comfort with the economy’s current state.
Outlook for Wednesday, March 12, 2025:
Trend: Remains negative in short and intermediate term, with long-term positivity (from a 2023 golden cross) under pressure due to being below the 200-day moving average.
Key Levels: Watch the weekly pivot (5,575) for a potential bounce (positive) or breakdown (negative).
Events: CPI data release could sway markets, alongside ongoing tariff and ceasefire talks (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Israel).
Seasonality: Neutral to slightly negative for March 12, with post-election year trends suggesting weakness.
Conclusion:
The market is in a precarious state—oversold but lacking clear catalysts for a rebound. Geopolitical uncertainty and economic data (CPI) will be critical in determining whether support holds or further declines ensue.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1C-v_6_ukh_Qr7xoZY1aVw7BcBAaE5Oud/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!