What to Watch Video Update for Monday March 10, 2025

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Summary of the "What to Watch Update" for Monday, March 10, 2025:
This weekly video provides an overview of the stock market, focusing on the S&P 500, and analyzes areas that are currently positive, negative, or being monitored. A macro perspective should be emphasized to assess market trends, acknowledging that most charts have both positive and negative interpretations. The key question this week is whether more S&P 500 declines are imminent, as the market remains at an inflection point—potentially poised for a recovery or further trouble.
Positive Indicators:
Advance-Decline Line: Despite S&P declines, this indicator is holding above the moving averages, suggesting money is shifting within the market (e.g., from growth to value) rather than exiting.
10-Day Advances Minus Decliners: No strong conviction, but it’s stable around zero, not signaling a sharp drop.
Accumulation Distribution: Remains above its 20-period moving average, a positive sign despite recent declines.
Chaiken Oscillator: Bounced above its midpoint on Friday, indicating some positive momentum.
Stocks Above their 200-Day Moving Averages: Over 50% of S&P 500 stocks are above this long-term benchmark, a positive signal, though close to tipping below.
Support Levels: The S&P closed above its 200-day moving average (0.65% above) and anchored moving averages from prior lows, suggesting resilience.
Mass Index & Pring Bottom Fisher: These indicators hint at a potential reversal to the upside if signals trigger, supported by recent declines possibly nearing a bottom.
Long-Term Trend: Weekly charts show the S&P well above a trendline from the 1987 crash, and ratios such as QQQs to small caps remain positive.
Negative Indicators:
Recent Declines: The S&P experienced a down week, falling toward the 200-day moving average, with late-day selling on some days.
Trend Indicators: Short, intermediate, and long-term trends (via ADX and moving averages) are negative, with strengthening downward momentum.
Sentiment: The Fear and Greed Gauge Index shows persistent pessimism without a washout, and the VIX is above 20, signaling fear.
Growth vs. Value Shift: Value is outperforming growth, indicating a defensive market stance, seen in ratios such as QQQs to S&P and discretionary to staples.
Small & Mid-Caps: These sectors are weakening, dropping below their 200-day moving averages.
Primary: The Vortex and others show negative readings, with declining momentum across multiple timeframes.
Sector Weakness: Technology, semiconductors, and financials are softening, with some nearing or breaching key support levels.
Hindenburg Omen: An initial signal appeared, which could foreshadow negativity if confirmed within 20 trading days.
Areas to Watch:
Jobless Claims: Initial claims declined, but continuing claims are rising, signaling employment trends to monitor.
Market Correction: The S&P is down over 7% intraday from its high, nearing a 10% correction threshold.
Bonds & Inflation: Cash-to-bond ratios are dropping, suggesting easing inflation fears, but TIPS vs. bonds show mixed signals.
Global Markets: Germany’s DAX is outperforming the S&P 500, and rising German 10-year yields may reflect geopolitical tensions (e.g., Ukraine).
Yield Curve: The 10-year to 3-month yield curve is at zero, hinting at economic concerns.
Conclusion:
The market is at a tipping point, with support levels such as the 200-day moving average holding for now, bolstered by some positive technical indicators. However, negative trends, defensive shifts, and broader weakness suggest caution. We can remain cautiously optimistic about the long-term trend (50-day above 200-day moving average) but we must closely watch it for a potential breakdown or recovery in the coming weeks.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fAynfe4Okx4TcUejdgzRZmr64wpWpRm2/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!