InterMarket Analysis Update for Monday March 10, 2025

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The Intermarket Analysis Video Update, prepared for Monday, March 10, 2025, provides a comprehensive weekly overview of financial markets.
Valuation: Historical and forward-looking earnings for the S&P 500. The Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio, based on a 10-20 point scale, indicates overvaluation, with the current PE at 20.8 and the Shiller PE at 36.34—double its historical median of 16-17. Mid-caps (15) and small-caps (14.9) appear fairly priced, while Mega-Cap stocks remain elevated at 25.9.
Growth vs. Value: Growth has historically outperformed Value during bullish markets, but recent trends show a defensive shift toward Value. While both remain in uptrends, Growth has weakened lately, with ratios such as Small-Cap and Mega-Cap Growth-to-Value dropping below their 200-day moving averages, signaling potential market caution.
Inflation: Inflation remains subdued per long-term charts (e.g., CRB index and inflation-to-deflation ratios), despite short-term commodity uptrends driven by tariff concerns and economic uncertainty. Inflation expectations have declined since early 2025, though markets murmur about inflationary pressures.
Other Markets: The analysis includes commodities (e.g., copper uptrending, oil declining), currencies (dollar weakening from the 107 to 103 range), and bonds (prices rising as yields fall). The Baltic Dry Index and Fertilizer hint at mild inflationary signals, while Aluminum and Wheat remain deflationary.
S&P 500 Sectors: The 11 sectors are evaluated individually and against the S&P 500. Tech and communication (Growth areas) show weakness, while Staples and Healthcare (defensive) are gaining. Energy (14 PE) is fairly priced, and financials are exhibiting a mixed performance.
Indexes and Correlations: The broader indexes (e.g., NASDAQ, small-caps) are underperforming the S&P 500, with equal-weight versions lagging. Correlations between asset classes (e.g., stocks and oil, tech and yields) remain strong but are shifting, reflecting market uncertainty.
Long-Term Trends: Monthly charts (e.g., NYSE, S&P 500) are testing key moving averages, with momentum oscillators such as the PPO and KST rolling over, suggesting potential weakness. U.S. stocks are underperforming their global peers.
Positive/Negative Summary: Positives include uptrends in growth, value, copper, gold, silver, and bonds. Negatives feature short-term currency reversals, semiconductor weakness, and a downtrending world bond index.
Persistent overvaluation and a defensive market shift have been building, key trends such as Growth-to-Value should be monitored. Semiconductor performance will have broader market implications.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1T5BWSAL_G7dfheRDywWRkC_YDTCfJOu1/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!