Signal versus Noise - Episode 2 - US Employment Situation

Episode 2 - Employment Situation (March 7th, 2025)

Participants: Edward Dowd and Carlos Alegria

In this episode we discuss the US Employment Surveys released by the BLS on the 7th of March 2025. The report was a mixed bag that, in our view, shows that employment has probably peaked and is set to decelerate in the months ahead.
Treasury yields for the 10y bond have been declining since January 2025 anticipating further weakness in the economy which anticipate weakness in the job market. We expect to see falls in employment in the months ahead, as we lay out in our US Economy report.
Our free report that re-examines the Shiller CAPE ratio shows that a rotation from stocks to bonds is likely in the coming months, which will be exacerbated by the weakness in the US Economy which we explain in our US Economy outlook.
This episode is in the context of our US Economy report where we explain in detail why we see the danger of a recession in 2025, and why it could be a worldwide recession.
https://phinancetechnologies.com/Product_USEconomyOutlook2025.htm

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