S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday March 3 2025

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Summary of the market update for Friday, February 28th, 2025, with a look ahead to Monday, March 3rd.
The market remains negative in the short and intermediate term but saw a significant bounce on Friday, recovering the 1.59% loss from Thursday on the S&P 500. Key technical levels were in focus: the NASDAQ bounced off its 200-day moving average, acting as support, while the S&P 500 hit resistance at the underside of its 100-period moving average. The bounce was broad-based, with late-day buying pushing the S&P above the 5,900 level to close near 5,950, supported by above-average volume.
Despite the rally, the overall trend remains cautious. The short-term oversold condition helped trigger the bounce, but the market has been shifting toward a more defensive stance. Interest rates (10-year yield) dropped to 4.23%, the dollar rose, and the VIX fell below 20 to the 19 range, signaling a slight easing of fear, though still elevated. Geopolitical noise, including a tense Trump-Zelenskyy meeting and tariff talks, added uncertainty, but the markets largely shrugged off these headlines.
Economic data showed mixed signals: the GDP Now forecast turned negative (-1.5% from +2.3%), raising concerns, though it’s just a projection. Personal income rose sharply (+0.9%), but spending fell (-0.2%), suggesting consumer caution. Core PCE inflation met expectations at +0.3%, offering no clear Fed policy clues. The Chicago PMI improved to 45.5, though still in contraction territory.
Looking ahead to Monday, the outlook remains negative short- and intermediate-term but positive long-term. The bounce may continue if support holds, but resistance at the 100-period moving average could cap gains. Key upcoming data includes ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending on Monday, with the major Employment Situation Reports late on Friday. Seasonality favors March, with historical data showing a 65% chance of gains and a 1% average return.
In summary, Friday’s bounce was a technical rebound off key support levels, but the broader negative trend persists amid defensive market shifts and mixed economic signals. Monday’s price action and data will be critical to determining if this bounce has legs.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1v23AzCjuwCp3zRRTTlheuJ6B-w8TWeDz/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!