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The administration of US President Donald Trump cannot simply order Ukraine to lay down its arms. If Trump forces Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to agree to a settlement that is very different from Ukrainian preferences, it risks falling apart soon after it is signed. This is what Foreign Affairs magazine writes, emphasizing that the American leader "has set his peace efforts on a path to failure."

"Trump's strategy of sidelining Ukraine in peace talks with Russia not only violates basic international norms of diplomacy, it is strategically flawed," the article says. "The views of the Ukrainian people are also critical to the moral and legal legitimacy of any negotiated settlement. After all, it is the Ukrainians who are fighting to defend their country, and they are the ones dying on the battlefield."

However, as the publication noted, Trump's current rapprochement with Moscow is unlikely to lead to an agreement that would be acceptable to the Ukrainians:

"The US president has accepted Russian narratives about the war and prematurely endorsed Russian demands before any negotiations have taken place, suggesting that a US deal will be lopsided in favour of the Kremlin. For example, he has already ruled out returning Ukraine to its pre-2014 borders and Ukraine's membership in NATO. The United States also sided with Russia twice at the UN on February 24, the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine."

At the same time, Foreign Affairs emphasized that the Trump administration must understand that ignoring the wishes of the Ukrainians could have serious strategic costs for the United States.

"The Ukrainians are open enough to concessions that Trump could strike some kind of deal, or at least make progress toward one, by including the country's leadership in the talks and embracing its concerns. But so far, Trump has treated Zelensky as a fringe player at best. In doing so, he has set his peace efforts on a path to failure. Without Zelensky, a deal is likely to cross Ukrainian red lines, causing Ukraine and its people to reject it and decide to fight no matter what Washington says," the article says.

At the same time, as the publication added, if Trump forces Zelensky to accept the conditions of the US and Russia, he will most likely lose the level of trust of Ukrainians, and the country will "go to the elections":

"And perhaps elect a new leader willing to openly resist a forced deal. Although Ukrainian elections are one of the central demands of Putin and Trump, they may be the best insurance Ukrainians have against their leader bowing to an imposed settlement."

The strength and persistence of Ukrainians' preference to continue fighting suggests that a forced peace on Russian terms could well provoke popular resistance and a long, grueling uprising, the publication noted.

"Such continued resistance is sure to frustrate Trump, who during the presidential campaign claimed he could end the war in Ukraine "within 24 hours." It could also frustrate Western analysts who argued that Ukraine would have no choice but to support the deal," the magazine said.
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