BREAKING: Gaza Ceasefire Passes, But For How Long?

Right, so some of the biggest news coming out of the Middle East right now is that a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is now the closest they have ever been, a line we’ve heard before and of course we’ve been here in this position hoping that this time will be different, only to see Benjamin Netanyahu shift the goalposts each time and collapse the talks and following that inevitably come all the demands that Hamas try harder by US mouthpieces so Israel-centric you’re often left wondering who’s side they are really on to begin with.
But this time things really are different it seems, the desperation of those who have been pulling Netanyahu’s strings before, the risk to his government collapsing as has always been the threat if he ever agreed to a ceasefire has to a certain extent lessened, but it hasn’t gone away completely and this has now been exposed more than ever as the real culprits behind collapsing ceasefire talks have exposed themselves, so there can be no doubt going forwards as to who is responsible, should these ceasefire talks succeed, or once again fail.
Right, so where I’ve been particularly cynical about ceasefire talks n the past, the hard right of Netanyahu’s coalition government always threatening to pull down the government if he dares agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, seen as surrendering to Hamas as that is, I’m more optimistic this time that actually something positive could come out of this, so what has changed? Well before we get to that, what are both sides on the verge of accepting here?
It's a three phase plan, with each phase being carried out over 42 days each and it is a proposal that has been broadly put forward before in effect and certainly terms Hamas have agreed to previously, but not Israel, yet now apparently that has changed, Hamas have accepted the terms again already it has been reported but I’ll get onto why Israel may have now shifted in a moment.
Phase one involves the temporary cessation of military operations by both sides and a 10 hour daily window where air activity ceases, rising to 12 hours on the days of prisoner exchanges, which will also be staged, prioritising, women, children and the elderly, with 3 hostages released on the first day of implementing the agreement, others will be released every 7 days thereafter during the first phase of the agreement and negotiations on the second phase will begin on the 16th day of the initial truce.
IDF forces will initiate staged withdrawals as the people of Gaza begin returning to their places of residence in stages as well.
Intensive aid convoys will enter the Strip from day one, 600 trucks a day, with priorities being to get the power plant back up and running along with hospital services, bakeries and the entry of equipment to remove rubble. Sanitation, water and communications will also be brought back up and running along with equipment for civil defence.
Military wounded will be allowed to pass through the Rafah crossing for treatment, passengers as well as the free movement of goods will return to this crossing as well. While all of this goes on the details of the second phase of the ceasefire agreement will be hammered out as a forementioned, which is why details on the second and third phases remain more scants, present the possibility of matters falling apart partway through the first phase, you worry in the back of your minds that if Israel get a good number of their hostages back they’ll take that as a win and resume attacks, but we do need to maintain some sort of hopefulness here.
Phase two would herald the permanent cessation of military activities and the remaining prisoner exchanges, by this time only men remaining and would see the full withdrawal of Israel from Gaza.
Phase three would see the exchanges of all bodies and remains of the dead being exchanged and a three to five year long plan for the reconstruction of Gaza would be implemented under the supervision of Egypt, Qatar and the US.
All of this Hamas have agreed to, we once again set all eyes on Benjamin Netanyahu to see if this gets wrecked again, it’s difficult to be too hopeful given how many times we’ve been here before, but there is one crucial difference this time as opposed to previous occasions.
It’s not really been a secret that the real people bringing down these ceasefire talks have been Itamar Ben Gvir of Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich of the Religious Zionist Party, the hard right of Netanyahu’s government and between the two of them, more than capable of bringing down that government if Netanyahu doesn’t jump to their tune, in fact so precarious has Netanyahu’s position been that either of them pulling their parties out of coalition would collapse the government. That is no longer the case though.
Last September, the former Coalition partner party New Hope rejoined Netanyahu’s government, having pulled out in March following Netanyahu’s refusal to give New Hope Party leader Gideon Sa’ar a place in the war cabinet. They are a splinter party from Netanyahu’s own Likud Party, they broke away in 2020, so are broadly speaking no different politically. This move however, meant that Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit, no longer had the government collapsing clout it once did and he can now no longer collapse matters without Bezalel Smotrich doing likewise. As such, he’s offered a bit of a begging video message to Smotrich in which he has said:
‘The deal that is taking shape is a surrender deal to Hamas. I call on my friend, Minister Bezalel Smotrich, to join me and work with me together against the surrender deal to Hamas.
My party, Otzma Yehudit, alone, does not have the power to prevent the deal, so I propose that we go together to the prime minister and tell him that if he approves the deal, we will withdraw from the government.
This cooperation is the only way to prevent a surrender deal, to prevent this disastrous deal, and to ensure that the sacrifices of hundreds of soldiers were not in vain.’
Sacrificing soldiers is something you are happy to do again and again and again to get your own way, to keep the war going, because ultimately Ben Gvir is the hero of the Zionist settler movement, they’ve all got designs on Gaza, so the last thing they want is for this war to end, they don’t just want Hamas gone of course, they want all of the Palestinians gone as well, other countries can take them has been the narrative from sauch figures as Daniella Weiss the head of the Nahala settler movement, who the IDF allowed into Gaza to basically begin measuring the curtains some months ago, claiming she had 740 settler families ready to move in.
If you want an idea of how mad she truly is, she told a rally in the last couple of days in regards to this ceasefire deal that she won’t accept surrender to terrorism and called for Netanyahu’s government to actually be overthrown, such is how close things looked to a deal a few days ago, let alone today.
As for Smotrich, well his Religious Zionist Party is also heavily backed by hard right settlers, he’s been pretty much on the same page as Itamar Ben Gvir throughout the genocide being meted out in Gaza, but there is a subtle shift now and I don’t know whether it is because he has secured so much in the way of additional powers for himself in the West Bank that Gaza is no longer as important or what, but his language, his tone is slightly different at least at this moment in time, to Ben Gvir’s as this excerpt from Anadolu Agency explains:
‘Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich announced on Monday his opposition to a potential prisoner exchange deal with Palestinian group Hamas, calling for opening “the gates of hell” on the enclave.
The emerging deal is a “catastrophe for Israel’s national security," Smotrich, the leader of the Religious Zionism Party, said on his X account.
The extremist minister, however, did not threaten to leave the government if the deal is approved.
"This is the time to continue with all our might, to occupy and cleanse the entire Strip, to finally take control of humanitarian aid from Hamas, and to open the gates of hell on Gaza until Hamas surrenders completely and all the hostages are returned,” he said.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Smotrich to try to persuade him to support the deal, according to the public broadcaster KAN.
Smotrich has repeatedly expressed his opposition to any agreement with Palestinians and previously threatened to withdraw from the government if a deal is signed.’
Fundamentally, if Smotrich joins Ben Gvir in making good on that threat to pull out of government, this deal will collapse because these two are the ones behind every other collapse. Ben Gvir has admitted it in fact, so brazen and stupid the optics of what he is saying, having said on 14th January that he had prevented Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from agreeing to several proposals for a ceasefire and prisoner swap with Hamas in Gaza over the past year. He is proud of it, a pontificating little monster on a power trip as he is.
I’d be suspicious actually of a double cross in the offing should Smotrich go along with the deal, that some hostages would be rescued but perhaps not all, to show Netanyahu has tried to get this through, blaming Hamas as they always do later of wrecking matters, they would be a convenient scapegoat. If Ben Gvir had an about face I’d be certain of it though.
What equally doesn’t help is when other state actors involved in this are repeatedly dishonest about who is to blame though. Every time for example as he has done again in recent days, Antony Blinken the US Secretary of State gets involved, he blames Hamas for any hold up or collapse in agreement. It isn’t them, it’s Ben Gvir, he’s admitted it, why can’t you say it? Value your dual citizenship too much? Between Blinken and Matthew Miller I don’t know which disingenuous apologist for genocide in the current US administration I want to see the back of more.
Ultimately, whether this deal goes through hinges on Smotrich. He alone can bring this deal down if he wants to by threatening to collapse the government. Netanyahu will always put himself, power and his position as Prime Minister first and if that happens here and now as close as matters have gotten, just forget a ceasefire until there’s a change in Israeli government because functionally they’ll be too paralysed by the far right in government to ever accept any deal that doesn’t appease the Israeli settlers. Fingers crossed Smotrich puts his own ministerial position first, but his language doesn’t exactly inspire much confidence does it?
Meanwhile, as events seem to be slipping from the US’s grip in Israel and Gaza they very much are as well in Syria, they really do think their meddling and interference in foreign affairs works don’t they? You’d think they’d have learnt by now but apparently not! With the new US backed HTS administration of former Al Qaeda head choppers now showing their true colours, as well as ongoing attacks on Syria by other state actors the US is supposedly allied with as well, they’re in a right old mess. Get the details of that story in this video recommendation here as your suggested next watch. Please do also hit like, share and subscribe to the channel if you haven’t done so already to help support the channel which is enormously appreciated as well as ensures you don’t miss out on new content dropping daily and as such I’ll hopefully see you on the next vid. Cheers folks.