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Kadyrov began to challenge Putin, his actions could spark rebellion in other regions of Russia
Having staked out his role as someone who trains Russian troops not only in Chechnya but across the country, Ramzan Kadyrov has now declared himself commander of all troops in Chechnya and said anyone who disagrees with that must be dismissed. US expert Paul Goble recalls that Ramzan Kadyrov has trained almost 50,000 Russian soldiers in his Spetsnaz University in Gudermes since that institution was established in 2013. Now, the Chechen leader is using graduates of that school to train Russian soldiers in other regions of the Russian Federation, including the Kola Peninsula, Atle Staalesen says.
The editor of The Barents Observer says that the Gudermes school has helped Kadyrov solidify his influence with Vladimir Putin, who when he visited it said that it “plays an important role in the defense capacity of the whole country”.
The Kremlin leader likely welcomes Kadyrov’s expansion of his training network, but there may be a downside. The Chechen leader may be creating an alliance that could be used against the Kremlin in the case of a weakening at the center. At the very least, Kadyrov by this action reduces the ability of the center to rein him in.
That Kadyrov may have such larger goals in mind is suggested by the fact that he now has a special representation office in Murmansk. Headed by Aslambek Asayev, it “closely cooperates with representatives of the security services” and “regularly meets with regional Governor Andrei Chibis,” Staalesen says.
US expert Paul Goble says that his words are undoubtedly at least in part bravado, but the fact that Kadyrov feels free to make such a declaration must disturb many in Moscow because it suggests that at least in Chechnya, Moscow’s control may not be nearly as tight as the Kremlin would like to believe.
“But there are two other implications, one immediate and one longer term, that may prove more serious. In the short term, Kadyrov’s suggestion will exacerbate relations between him and Chechen forces, on the one hand, and the Russian high command, on the other, in the fighting in Ukraine, reducing unit cohesion and effectiveness.
And in the longer term, Kadyrov is doing what many analysts have suggested other regional leaders might do in the event that Putin leaves the scene unexpectedly and the center weakens. If other governors make similar claims, that could trigger a farworse civil war than anyone is now projecting”, Paul Goble added.
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