The successor to Xi Jinping might have emerged.

At 71, will Xi rule for life, or serve one more term? If he does, he’ll retire in 2034 at the age of 82. Signs point to his retirement in 2034 based on the current CCP leadership structure.

The CCP has a strict age system for leadership. Unlike the U.S., where you can run for president at 80, in China, there’s an unwritten rule that senior officials can stay in office or be promoted until 67. By 68, however, they can not be promoted anymore .

Additionally, the Party’s highest leader, who is also the country’s highest leader, typically needs experience in local government—usually as a provincial governor and party secretary.

The path to the top is clear: from governor to the Central Committee, then the Politburo, and finally the Politburo Standing Committee. Once you’re in the Standing Committee, you’re in the running for the top spot, but no one over 68 can be selected to ensure they can serve two full terms.

So, who could replace Xi in 2034? It’s likely to be one of four senior provincial officials. Among them, Liu Jie, the deputy party secretary of Zhejiang who was born in the 70s, seems like the top candidate. BTW, Zhejiang is where Xi himself worked, and many of his close allies come from there.