The Wire - January 2, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z January 2, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: QUESTIONABLE DETAILS REMAIN FOLLOWING YESTERDAY’S TERROR ATTACKS.//
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-International Events-
Europe: Russia’s GAZPROM has halted the flow of natural gas to Europe following the cessation of the long-standing trade deal involving the transportation of LNG through Ukraine to European customers. This development has been expected since at least 2014, when Europe was extremely reliant on Russian gas, yet in the predicament of the war developing in Crimea at the time. Since that time, most European customers of Russian LNG have either attempted to reduce or shift their demand for natural gas, or have shifted to other providers. AC: At the moment, this development doesn’t appear to really change much with regards to Europe’s energy crisis; this is more of the end of an era that has been a long time coming.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: Many details abound surrounding the New Year’s attack on Bourbon Street. Most pressingly, the FBI has taken the position that the attacker, Shamsud-din Jabbar, acted alone. Despite initial reports suggesting three men and one woman were observed planting explosives throughout the area, the FBI has corrected these reports and suggested that the persons observed were not involved with the placement of IEDs. AC: The knee-jerk reaction by the FBI to lie has reduced the trust and confidence the average citizen has in this assessment. For instance, during the FBI’s press conference yesterday (in which a spokesperson stated that the event wasn’t terrorism), the FBI had already recovered an ISIS flag at the scene. At the time of the press conference, the FBI knew this detail, confirming that the details conveyed to the American people at that moment were a lie. Trust is a concept that is easily lost, and very hard to regain. As such, if additional threats emerge following the now multiple terror attacks that have already occurred around the nation, it’s unlikely that anyone will trust what the FBI has to say for some time.
Nevada: Overnight, investigators have stated that the incident at Trump Tower in Las Vegas was a deliberate act of terrorism. The suspect, who authorities claim has been identified as Matthew Livelsberger, allegedly constructed a Vehicle-Borne IED, detonating the device at the hotel for (as of now) unknown reasons.
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Analyst Comments: The details that have come to light regarding the Vegas bomber have largely been host to much suspicion. Allegedly, Livelsberger was killed in the attack. However, considering that Livelsberger was a Special Forces soldier, and an expert in sUAS systems and remotely-operated electronics, skepticism abounds as to whether or not the body recovered from the vehicle was actually him. DNA testing will be required to fully verify the driver’s remains. Initially, authorities appear to have relied on tattoos and documents found in the vehicle to identify the driver of the Cybertruck. However, it’s not clear as to how the driver’s remains can be burned beyond recognition, yet his identity documents (to include his passport) survived the fire. It’s also not clear as to why the driver would have sustained a gunshot wound to the head (as was stated by the Las Vegas Sheriff this afternoon), if the intent was for him to detonate a VBIED. This latter detail is completely at odds with the characteristics of most terror attacks; it is virtually unheard of for an attacker to take his own life before ensuring that their explosives are functional and/or the attack is complete. An attacker choosing to take their own life rather than carry out the attack is somewhat common, however the details of this case cause much doubt as to what really happened. All of these details, while possibly perfectly explainable, also could be indicators of inconsistent information that raise legitimate questions.
Considering his military experience, and the training courses that would have been required all throughout his career, including educational courses on how to make Homemade Explosives (HME), it is highly suspect that this individual would have created such a crude, Reddit-tier explosive device. Even the Bourbon Street terrorist was able to make a few crude pipe bombs, and that individual worked in IT. The Vegas bomber was a Green Beret, who’s entire career arc revolved around guerrilla warfare. Cans of gasoline and fireworks being a core part of his alleged explosive attack is completely outside the norm of what all service members in his career field are capable of. On the other hand, his technical specialties within his military career were not specifically to be an explosives expert. This detail, combined with the declining proficiencies within the military at large, mean that it is theoretically possible (however remote) that this individual could not identify the deficiencies with his own attack plan. The end result leaves no room for comfort in any case as far too many intelligence gaps remain to make sense of what truly happened.
Many factors had to line up for this attack to have been as ineffective as it was. The alleged bomber calmly parked at the front door, not even bothering to attempt to ram through the obviously unreinforced plate glass front windows, which lends credence to the driver maybe not being alive at the time the vehicle arrived (Tesla vehicles such as the Cybertruck being capable of autonomous driving). The cybertruck, heavily marketed and sold on its resistance to bullets (and shrapnel) is an interesting choice of vehicle used in the attack, that was somehow used in the most ineffective way possible. All in all, while the specifics of the attack itself vary, the atmospherics of this incident bear striking resemblance to the 2020 Nashville VBIED attack, in which the alleged attacker in that case also took radical steps to ensure that virtually every single norm of a routine terror attack is not adhered to, conducting the most ineffective attack possible. In this more recent attack in Las Vegas, this overall similarity can’t be dismissed. Even if Livelsberger was seeking to only take his own life in a flamboyant way, or to complete the act as part of a political statement, the very ineffective and extraordinarily amateurish VBIED construction is an oddity. Even someone operating with an altered mental state would likely have conducted this attack (or political statement) very differently.
While much debate abounds regarding the multiple terror attacks that ushered in the New Year for the United States, one detail remains pertinent for those discussing the very questionable details surrounding these attacks. A false flag operation, conducted solely for the purposes of furthering a political goal, can still be fatal. Whatever really happened, whether it be a wild and elaborate conspiracy, or a purely isolated “event”, the universal truth no matter the cause is that people were killed yesterday. In the heat of the moment, it’s too late to have the philosophical debate of whether or not an attack is a false-flag operation. However, after the event is over, discernment, the crown of all virtues, is a worthy pursuit.
When an event occurs, it would be wise for one to consider the emotion or action that event is intended to result in. In short, when something happens think about what it's trying to get you to do. An ISIS flag being found at the scene of a terror attack (and yet still somehow sporting creases from being folded in the packaging it was sold in), is probably intended to drive an emotional response. A highly-experienced Green Beret trained in how to make bombs in a thousand different ways, somehow choosing the most ineffective explosive method that results in no casualties and very little damage, is probably also intended to result in some form of emotional response.
Right now, the risk of terrorism is high. Who is really and truly behind it, is up for debate and probably varies widely. But on the ground, when the bullets are flying, the philosophy of the event is largely not considered during the fray. When the chips are down, helping each other and stopping the evil acts are the only priority. It is only after the day is done, and the casualties are counted, that the speed and violence of action to prevent bad people from doing bad things should shift into a mentality of discernment.
On the one hand, the United States has never been more vulnerable to terror attacks conducted by thousands of different groups and malign actors. On the other hand, the United States is also incredibly at risk of a false-flag terror attack dragging our nation into a war under false pretenses. It is only in the search for discernment that we will have the ability to prevent, mitigate, and respond to crises that affect our civilization, while also having the wisdom of restraint.
Analyst: S2A1
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