The Wire - January 1, 2025

//The Wire//2100Z January 1, 2025//
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//BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK OCCURS AT BOURBON STREET CELEBRATIONS IN NEW ORLEANS, MULTIPLE IEDS FOUND. VEHICLE EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TRUMP TOWER IN LAS VEGAS.//
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-International Events-
Global: A G4 geomagnetic storm is currently underway following two Earth-facing Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) observed a few days ago. Aurora (Northern Lights) will be observed at more southern latitudes than normal, and various radio communications may be degraded over the next few days.
-HomeFront-
New York: Yesterday evening, another shoving attack was carried out on the New York City subway system. A man approached a subway passenger from behind, and intentionally shoved him onto the tracks mere seconds before a train arrived. Surveillance footage of the attack strongly indicates the attack was deliberately timed to coincide with the arrival of the train. The victim, who was crushed by the train, reportedly remains in critical condition. The assailant has been identified as Kamel Hawkins, an individual known to police with an extensive criminal history. AC: Initially, the attacker was only charged with 2nd degree assault for this attack. However, due to public outrage, additional charges of attempted murder have been brought, due to the horrific and deliberate nature of the attack.
Louisiana: During New Year’s celebrations last night, an assailant conducted a vehicle ramming attack on a crowd of people on Bourbon Street. After ramming his vehicle into the crowd, the assailant exited the vehicle and began the second phase of his attack, engaging two police officers with a small arms. 2x police officers were wounded in this engagement, both of which are reportedly hospitalized and in stable condition. At some point during this skirmish, the assailant was neutralized. Multiple Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) were found in the vehicle after the incident. The FBI also stated that multiple IEDs were also located emplaced throughout the French Quarter, though none of these explosive devices successfully detonated during the attack. So far, 15x fatalities have been reported due to the attack, and over 30x wounded. This morning, the attacker was identified as Shamsud-Din Jabbar, an American citizen (and Army veteran) who lived in Texas. After the attack, a residential fire was reported on Mandeville Street, in an Airbnb residence that was allegedly linked in some way to the attacker.
AC: Also of note, it is not entirely certain that this individual acted alone; rumors have begun to mount suggesting that several other suspects are currently being investigated for their alleged involvement. As a result, it is possible that this incident has not yet reached a conclusion. After all, if a terrorist is going to take the time to plant multiple IEDs throughout an area, there could be more explosive devices that have not been discovered yet. This is most sharply demonstrated by the Governor of Louisiana declaring a state of emergency after the attack. This declaration (and the subsequent deployment of Military Police, per statements from Gov. Landry’s office) is unusual following allegedly-isolated attacks and likely would not happen if the threat of follow-on attacks wasn’t present. This afternoon, multiple media outlets claimed that local authorities have information regarding three males and one female planting the explosives around the city. Though this information remains unconfirmed at this time, citizens nationwide are strongly encouraged to remain vigilant and observant during this time of heightened risk.
Nevada: An incident was reported in the vicinity of Trump Tower in Las Vegas this morning when a vehicle (a Tesla Cybertruck) exploded at the front door of the hotel. The driver of the vehicle was killed in the explosion. AC: So far, it’s too soon to tell if this was an accident or a deliberate act. Several hours after the incident, surveillance footage emerged indicating that a substantial amount of fireworks were being transported in the vehicle. However, this detail alone does not indicate much with any certainty; what could have been an unfortunate accident could just as easily have been a political stunt, and/or a rather poorly-constructed Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED). Due to the placement of the vehicle directly at the front door (and thus positioned for maximum effect on soft targets at a known choke-point) it would be wise to consider nefarious intent, just in case. Especially considering the currently heightened terrorism risk.
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Analyst Comments: The attack in New Orleans meets the commonly accepted definition of a complex terror attack. The IED’s found at the scene were likely intended to serve as a secondary attack, detonating after the main attack was over, targeting first responders. This is a classic tactic used by insurgents around the world, and one of the main concerns present for vehicle ramming attacks. As many good Samaritans rush to the scene to help the wounded, they may be walking into a trap intentionally set for the purposes of maximizing casualties. In this case, the possible IEDs (which were allegedly rigged for remote detonation) did not detonate nor were they used in the attack.
Locally, New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell stated that the incident was a terror attack. However, in their first press briefing, the FBI spokesperson directly stated that the event is not a terror attack, causing concerns among the public as to the trust and confidence placed in national counter-terrorism agencies. Many hours later, in a text-only statement posted online, the FBI completely reversed their initial assessment and are now investigating this event as a terror attack.
Even without knowing the specific motive, per the FBI “fear” itself can be a motive, and ramming a vehicle containing explosives into a crowd of people certainly has that effect. Consequently, since this incident was very obviously a terror attack, pretending to not know the basics of counterterrorism doctrine from the past 50 years is disingenuous at best. Per the FBI’s own definition, a terror attack is defined as: “The unlawful use of force and violence against persons or property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.”
The semantics of this definition, while seemingly nit-picky, do matter. Even though the FBI rapidly reversed course and is now investigating this as an act of terrorism, this delay does matter.
This is largely due to the investigative process; declaring the incident to be a terror attack (or not declaring it to be so) changes the investigation process and the resources dedicated to it…in the critical moments when additional follow-on attacks may be imminent. Considering that this attack already meets the Department of Homeland Security’s definition of a Complex Coordinated Attack (CCA), the FBI expressing hesitation in labeling the attack what it was has raised concerns. Namely, that if the FBI hesitates and struggles to define events that have already happened, this is not a good indicator of the FBI’s ability to prevent future attacks from happening. Right now, many Americans are concerned that when a high-profile attack is conducted by a malign actor that may result in some level of political incorrectness, concealing details of the attack from the public don’t help alleviate these concerns. While an FBI spokesperson was standing in front of a camera saying that it wasn’t an act of terror, multiple IEDs could have detonated around the city, as was intended by the terrorist(s). Thankfully in this case this did not happen, but the FBI directly claiming the attack was not terrorism, and in the same breath mentioning multiple IEDs being found, is very telling.
In the world of counter-terrorism, speed is key. So far, the FBI only acted with haste when it came to concealing the details of the attack that strongly indicate some level of (probably Islamic-affiliated) terrorism. Separately, the FBI dragging their feet during the initial hours of this investigation could have been deadly. This attack was already deliberate, complex, required prior planning, and probably more than just one person…this was not a random act of violence. In the world of counter-terrorism any time an element of deliberate planning is assessed to be a factor (even before the dust settles), resources should have sprung into action. In short, when one vehicle rams into a crowd, authorities should be considering the possibility that this is but the opening act of more attacks. In the heat of the moment, what looks to be only one vehicle attack may indeed be many more attacks in very short order. Though in this case this thankfully has not happened (yet), federal agencies expressing hesitation during this crucial time is concerning. This hesitation was especially dangerous considering some of the details specific to the attack. For one, any vehicle ramming attack on a crowd of people gathered for a holiday celebration (and thus a high-risk event) is suspect and is normally considered to be a terror attack in the early phases of the incident, just to be precautious. Similarly, the vehicle being driven by a man who appeared to be wearing a camouflage military uniform and tactical gear, and this man engaging police officers with small arms during the attack…this is generally assumed by everyone to not be just a random street crime.
As has been demonstrated time and time again, insurgents around the world know that the very first actions of the FBI during a major terror attack will be that of hesitation and a rapid effort to conceal the actions/motive of the terrorist. The FBI’s first instinct during a crisis being to coverup details is something that is very likely to be capitalized on by malign actors in the future.
Analyst: S2A1
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