Class 33: The Errors & Exaggerations of Epidemiology II

The biggest mistake is the ecological fallacy, which is assuming the probability of exposure given a disease is the same as the probability of having the disease given exposure. We do that and then calculate the chance of the disease after first being exposed AND dosed.

All questions will be answered in the following Monday's lecture.

Written lecture:
https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/
https://wmbriggs.substack.com/

Jaynes's book: http://www.med.mcgill.ca/epidemiology/hanley/bios601/GaussianModel/JaynesProbabilityTheory.pdf

Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science