Saudi dominance of the Middle East.

In an article for the Financial Times, Middle East expert Gideon Rachman predicted that Saudi Arabia will ultimately run the region, not Turkey or Israel, and that it will have the final say in what happens in the future. He wrote, criticizing Erdogan’s statements, “Xi Jinping and Donald Trump may argue over the Turkish president’s global ranking. However, regionally, Erdogan has the right to claim that he is one of the two strong leaders reshaping the Middle East. His hated rival is Benjamin Netanyahu. Erdogan’s current arrogance stems from his role in #Syria. Turkey was the only regional power to put its full weight behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Islamist group that toppled the Assad regime. Erdogan has long aspired to rebuild Turkish power across the lands of the old Ottoman Empire. For him, Assad’s ouster opens a new avenue for regional influence. It also has the potential domestic benefit of weakening the Kurds in Syria, easing Turkey’s refugee problem, and helping his bid to remain president after 2028. But Turkey’s alliances with Islamist groups such as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and the Muslim Brotherhood are a serious threat to states in the region. Israel has moved to destroy Syria’s military capabilities, pounding its naval and air forces and seizing territory beyond the Golan Heights, which Israel has occupied since 1967. The Israeli government has portrayed its moves as precautionary and defensive. But Netanyahu, like Erdogan, sees opportunities ahead. Speaking last week, he said, “Something big has happened here, an earthquake that hasn’t happened in a hundred years since the Sykes-Picot agreement.” He appeared to be referring to the 1916 British-French agreement that divided the Ottoman Empire.

Further afield, Netanyahu will see an opportunity for a final reckoning with Iran. The Islamic Republic is in its weakest position in decades. It faces internal opposition and will be concerned about the fall of authoritarianism in Syria. Tehran has seen its allies—Hamas, Hezbollah, and now Assad—decimated. Iran may respond to the loss of its regional proxies with an accelerated push to acquire nuclear weapons. But that could invite an Israeli attack.

After the Netanyahu government’s successful offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon—a campaign that the Biden administration has warned against—the Israelis are in a confident and radical mood. Over the past year, Israel has demonstrated its ability to fight on multiple fronts simultaneously—including Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Iran, and now Syria. The Israelis are also the region’s only nuclear power, and now enjoy near-total U.S. support.

Like Erdogan, Netanyahu is a ruthless political survivor. Both have taken power for the first time in decades.

Yet their dreams of regional hegemony suffer from similar, significant vulnerabilities.
“Israel and Turkey are non-Arab powers in an Arab-majority region. There is no appetite in the Arab world to recreate the Ottoman Empire. Israel remains an outside power in the Middle East, feared, distrusted and hated by many.

Turkey and Israel also have too weak an economic base to aspire to regional hegemony. The Turkish economy is bloated. And for all its technological and military might, Israel is a tiny country with a population of just over ten million.

The competing ambitions of Erdogan and Netanyahu could easily clash in Syria, which risks becoming a battleground for rival regional powers because Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states also have interests at stake there.

Last week, while the Turks cheered the fall of Damascus and the Israelis were destroying the Syrian army, Saudi Arabia celebrated a more peaceful achievement, being chosen as host of the 2034 World Cup.

It is true that Israel and Turkey have powerful militaries. But the Saudis have the financial firepower. Whatever path Riyadh decides to take, it could shape the Middle East more fundamentally than the actions of Erdogan and Netanyahu.