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Reeves’s inheritance tax raid to cost more than it makes
Hit to Exchequer from lower investment and job losses will outweigh revenue uplift, warn economists
Rachel Reeves’s inheritance tax raid on family businesses and farms will backfire by costing the Treasury over £1bn more than it makes, economists have said.
A drop in investment caused by the Chancellor slashing tax relief risks outweighing the extra income the Exchequer expects to gain from the changes, according to analysis by CBI Economics.
Its report says the Treasury has “underestimated the impact” of changes to business property relief (BPR), with the majority of family businesses forced to cut investment because of the raid.
Analysts estimate that 125,678 jobs will be lost as a result. Overall, the loss of economic activity will lead to a £2.6bn reduction in income from taxes such as corporation tax, income tax and national insurance over the next five years, the research suggests.
This is much more than the estimated £1.38bn in extra inheritance tax Ms Reeves hopes to raise from cutting BPR, meaning that the Exchequer will be £1.26bn worse off than under the status quo.
Kemi Badenoch, the leader of the Conservatives, will cite the research in a speech in London on Monday as she warns that “no one is safe” from Labour’s tax raid.
Speaking at the Business Property Relief Summit, Mrs Badenoch is expected to say: “Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves spent months, years even, on a charm offensive to convince businesses they had nothing to fear from a Labour government.
“Within weeks of taking office, they unleashed the worst raid on family business in living memory. They promised to get growth going. Instead, growth is going backwards.
“Keir Starmer’s decisions will drain investment and growth out of the British economy. And no one is safe. Businesses small and large, rural and urban, whether they make goods or provide services.
“The warning from Family Business UK that Labour’s changes to BPR could lead to 125,000 job losses is chilling. For some context, that figure is equivalent to the entire population of Blackburn.”
The changes to BPR mean that a 20pc levy will be charged on inherited business assets over £1m when someone dies. Agricultural property relief (APR) is also being limited, meaning farmland will be taxed too.
Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform, said: “Rachel Reeves is no economist. Her Budget measures and total lack of understanding of the private sector is driving us into recession.”
Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat environment spokesman, said: “Farmers have had to deal with botched trade deals, endless amounts of red tape and now this tax hike from the Chancellor will hit farmers even harder leading to the collapse of so many family farms and countless jobs.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/12/16/reeves-inheritance-tax-raid-cost-more-than-it-makes/
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