The Wire - December 12, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z December 12, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: PENTAGON DENIES NEW JERSEY UNKNOWN AIRCRAFT ORIGINATE FROM IRAN. CHINESE NAVAL DRILLS CONTINUE IN FAR EAST.//
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-International Events-
Far East: Chinese military drills in the vicinity of Taiwan continue. Overnight, Taiwan reported a slight decrease in the overall numbers of Chinese vessels and aircraft observed, reporting 34x PLA aircraft and 16x PLAN vessels operating near Taiwan over the past 24 hours.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: The previous claims of Iranian involvement in the current unidentified aircraft incident have been denied by the Pentagon. This afternoon the Pentagon maintained the position of not knowing what these aircraft are (or otherwise stated most of the reports are a case of mistaking commercial aircraft for drones), however Pentagon officials don’t seem to be particularly interested in investigating these platforms further.
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Analyst Comments: Of note, open source satellite imagery from December 8th strongly indicates that Iran’s drone carrier vessels (the only ones with the capability to launch this many drones that’s also potentially capable of sailing to the Atlantic Ocean) are anchored in their normal positions outside the IRGCN naval base in Bandar Abbas. Consequently, unless Iran has managed to bend space-time, it would be impossible for these IRGCN vessels to have transited to the coast of New Jersey in the allotted time.
Other than confidently ruling out Iranian involvement, the origin of the unidentified aircraft sighted in New Jersey remains a mystery. Local authorities are becoming increasingly frustrated by the lack of help or concern from federal authorities, with many locals requesting the aircraft be shot down. However, as these aircraft sightings are taking place in the most congested airspace in the United States, combined with the minor detail that the last time the US Air Force shot down a spy balloon, they missed the target at least once, it's unlikely for any of these questionable aircraft to be shot down while within American airspace. If anything, the aircraft could be shot down while over the Atlantic Ocean, but that is also assuming that the US government doesn’t know all of the details of these aircraft already.
In many ways, the Pentagon is correct in the assessment that most of the reports conflate commercial aircraft with drones. For instance, at least 80% of all of the footage and imagery of these “drones” as provided and broadcast by mainstream media, very clearly shows what are obviously commercial aircraft. Sometimes so obviously that the airline livery on the tail can be identified. However, care must be taken to rule out all reports as some very clear unidentified aircraft/drone observations have occurred, despite the media blitz which has whipped up much mass hysteria on this issue.
Analyst: S2A1
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