The Wire - December 10, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z December 10, 2024//
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//BLUF: POWER-PLAYERS CONTINUE PURSUIT OF THEIR OWN INTERESTS IN SYRIA. CONCERNING DETAILS EMERGE FOLLOWING PREVIOUS COUP ATTEMPT IN SOUTH KOREA.//
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-International Events-
Syria: The Israeli invasion in the south continues, with Israeli forces reaching the town of Qatana overnight. As of this morning, IDF armored elements were reportedly engaged in minor skirmishes within 10 miles of Damascus, with the axis of advance largely being undertaken from the Golan Heights, along the Syrian border with Lebanon. In the north, Turkey continues their large-scale bombing/shelling of various positions to the east of their historic occupation areas (AC: Turkey has maintained an invasion of northern Syria for a few years, which has been tied up in various legalese, but is essentially their own “buffer zone” invasion they carried out years ago, similarly to what Israel is currently carrying out in the south).
Meanwhile, the war continues in eastern Syria between a conglomeration of random groups, the most prominent of which are the Syrian Defense Forces (or SDF, the US-backed coalition fighting various other groups in the autonomous eastern region of the country). This afternoon, the US CENTCOM director for the counter-ISIS mission in the east visited several military bases throughout the region, reaffirming American government support to their interests throughout the failed state.
South Korea: Investigations into the actions of various military commanders during last week’s coup attempt continue. Initial data (as made public by investigators) indicates that this coup attempt had been planned for some time, with some commanders allegedly engaging in planning efforts as far back as the summer of 2023.
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Analyst Comments: As a consequence of events on the Korean Peninsula, scrutiny has once again returned to President Yoon, who originally attempted to attribute his actions to innocent buffoonery. Now, it would seem that President Yoon had likely been planning this action as a real and genuine attempt to seize power, and not just politically grandstand. His failures, however, prevented his success. Many military leaders within the sphere of Capitol defense did not know of the coup plans, and thus the internal checks and balances prevented the speed and violence of action needed for the coup to work. Likewise, the foot-dragging of other lower-level soldiers, and the hesitation to carry out questionable orders without a doubt saved lives. Something as simple as a junior officer telling his guys to go take a ramen break for half-an-hour may very well have prevented calamity from befalling the nation.
In short, the actions of low-level staffers and junior soldiers to act with magnanimity, not necessarily to pick a side during the coup, but to approach the situation with great discernment, reflect great credit on their devotion to their nation. Though very unconfirmed at this time, some rumors of an exceptionally serious nature have begun to mount following the revelations that have come to light over the past few days. Allegations have been made that President Yoon may have even attempted to stoke a war with North Korea to solidify his coup attempt. More specifically, he allegedly was planning to authorize a drone to fly over Pyongyang as a way of stoking a North Korean military response which would justify Yoon’s coup.
As this is a VERY serious implication/accusation, much more investigation is needed. After all, Yoon’s political opponents have great motivation to hang him out to dry, even to include exaggeration or lies about Yoon’s actions. As such, great care must be taken to avoid the situation spiraling out of control again; South Korea might not be out of the woods just yet with regards to activities transitioning out of the realm of traditional politics and more into a continuation of politics by other means.
Analyst: S2A1
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