The Wire - December 6, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z December 6, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH IN SOUTH KOREA AMID POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SERIES OF ESCALATIONS. SYRIAN REBELS CONTINUE ADVANCE, ARRIVE IN HOMS. DANIEL PENNY TRIAL CONTINUES IN NYC, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CIVIL UNREST.//
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-International Events-
Syria: The situation has deteriorated significantly over the past 24 hours. Pro-Assad forces have largely been completely absent throughout most of the country as the conglomeration of rebel forces being led by HTS have continued their advance. Overnight HTS arrived in Homs, and have taken the northern suburbs of the city.
South Korea: Tensions remain high amid the rapid-pace of events that have occurred over the past 24 hours. Specifically, concerns have arisen that President Yoon may declare a state of Martial Law once again as a vote on his impeachment is carried out in Parliament tomorrow. As this impeachment vote essentially comes down to whether or not his own party will support him, the situation remains very fluid. Yoon’s political bloc, the People Power Party, has flip-flopped on supporting him during the impeachment efforts, at first denouncing him because of his first Marital Law declaration, then supporting him a few hours later and vowing to oppose any impeachment efforts. This morning indications emerged that his party would indeed support an impeachment due to the revelation that Yoon has issued military orders for the armed forces to remain on alert until tomorrow…after the impeachment vote. By midday, his party held a meeting and flipped again, confirming the party line that they would not support an impeachment of President Yoon. As it stands President Yoon’s impeachment vote is scheduled for Saturday.
Several high-level officials have also resigned and/or been suspended due to their part in the first coup attempt. The leadership of the RoK Special Warfare Command, the Capital Defense Command, and the Defense Counterintelligence Command have all been suspended by the Defense Ministry.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – The USDA has issued an order for the entire national milk supply to be tested for bird flu. AC: This mandate is somewhat perplexing as any sort of bacteria, virus, or pathogen is neutralized by the HTST pasteurization process that is currently mandated in the United States.
New York: The potential for civil unrest remains elevated as the Daniel Penny trial verdict is expected Monday. This afternoon, the primary charge of manslaughter against Penny was dismissed before the court adjourned for the weekend. The prosecution is trying the comparatively unorthodox attempt to get the second charge to stick with the jury, which will begin deliberating again on Monday. AC: As a reminder this is a very high-profile case that has resulted in high-tensions already due to the racial component of the incident, as well as the extreme levels of bias that have been on display during this trial. As such, though the most serious charge against Penny has been dropped, if he is found guilty of the lesser charges on Monday the potential for civil unrest is greatly reduced. However, if he is found not guilty, acquitted, or the jury is hung on all charges, the potential for civil unrest becomes substantial. As the primary charge has been dropped, malign actors will have time to prepare for demonstrations and unrest operations over the weekend.
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Analyst Comments: Concerning the tactical situation in South Korea, many Members of Parliament remain on ready alert, with reports of some politicians sleeping in their offices, or even in the main assembly hall, to prevent another late-night coup attempt. Outside the National Assembly Building, varying demonstrations have been persistently underway since the crisis began three days ago. Politicians, staffers, and civilians alike have been observed emplacing obstacles on known Helicopter Landing Zones (HLZs) in the capitol region, to prevent the landing of helicopters in similar fashion as before. The HLZ at the soccer field to the northwest of the building has also allegedly been compromised due to individuals parking their cars on the soccer field to prevent a helicopter landing. However, this may also be the result of the sheer number of people located within the capitol region at the present moment, all of whom are awaiting the next development in South Korea.
In Syria, it is still too soon to determine the overall scale/significance of what is happening nationwide. Some early indications are being presented that this latest surge of rebel activity may indeed result in a collapse of the Assad regime…a regime that has endured through a decade of much more significant fighting. As such, it is hard to imagine that Assad’s regime would fall due to a week’s worth of fighting. Nevertheless, the indicators are stacking up to suggest this very well may happen. Russian forces have largely been quiet during this latest surge in fighting, withdrawing to known safe-zones that are easily defended while strategic decisions are made. In Moscow, the temperature of the Kremlin on this issue is hard to determine due to the potential courses of action taking radically diverging paths. On the one hand, it is hard to believe that Putin would leave Assad out to dry, both for personal and strategic reasons (i.e. energy concerns and the military foothold in the region). On the other hand, Russia is not known to react to anything quickly, especially militarily. Russia may seek to cede extreme amounts of terrain and largely abandon Assad’s forces (which also appear to be abandoning themselves in droves), before launching a significant counterattack when logistics allow. However, many a regime has fallen due to national leadership either hesitating to respond or underestimating the scale of the threat.
Analyst: S2A1
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