ISRAEL LEBANON CEASEFIRE DEAL ON THE BRINK OF COLLAPSE ALREADY?

Right, so there is a lot of commentary going on right now, pretty much headline news regarding a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, seemingly agreed to by both sides, even Netanyahu himself was backing it and frankly with the need for ongoing war and his desire to see it expand to try and keep him out of court and keep himself in power, it doesn’t make a huge amount of sense from his perspective to agree to this, so is there a catch? Do you smell a rat? Well that could well be for very good reason. Where the mainstream media are implying this is all a done deal, it actually isn’t at all, and when digging into some of the commentary in foreign sources and alternative media, you start to realise just how far away from a done deal this is, but then, that isn’t necessarily the point. In my view this is all about a narrative that can be carried forward and got away with, where in practical terms violence and atrocity may return quite soon, a deal that may actually turn out to be a trap for Hezbollah and provide political coverage for Israel and it’s allies to resume atrocities, and get away with it in the name of self defence by making it all about them, just like Gaza was made all about Hamas. There are other sticking points outstanding to though that should be of grave concern. This is far from a done deal.
Right, so a ceasefire effectively came into force at 4am Lebanon time, that was 6am our time here in the UK, so let’s begin with what we actually know about it.
For one, it is not a permanent ceasefire, it is only due to last for 60 days.
The full text of the agreement is not known, it has not been published, at least not at time of writing but is apparently some 5 pages long and divided into 13 sections, be more useful to be able to actually read it, but there’s a reason it’s not out yet and should be pretty obvious quite frankly, because not everyone has actually agreed to it yet.
We do know about some of the key provisions though and feel free to spot the issues as we go.
Ceasefire from 4am Lebanese time, all Israeli actions against Lebanese territory must cease and Israeli troops will withdraw from Southern Lebanon over the course of the next 60 days. Lebanon obviously wanted this done sooner, they expect it to be done within the first month, but Israel functionally have right up until the end of the ceasefire to withdraw, upon which, they could re-enter the very next day in theory.
Hezbollah must withdraw from Southern Lebanon completely and withdraw north of the Litani river, they must leave the UN resolution zone so to speak as this illustration shows and the Lebanese army will instead deploy 5000 troops at 33 posts along the border. There is no published provision for what role UNIFIL will have going forwards that we know of right now, which is concerning. Hezbollah must also destroy all of their infrastructure in the south or have it done for them. What counts as a Hezbollah military building? Well what has counted as a Hamas building in Gaza? Everything. One of the biggest sticking points here is that although displaced Lebanese civilians may be able to return south to rebuild their homes and their lives, it’s too easy for Israel to designate anything they build as Hezbollah and strike it, and they may not wait for the end of the ceasefire if they think they could get away with that, who would it past them having witnessed what they’ve done in Gaza, or would they wait the 60 days before razing homes to the ground again when the ceasefire in it’s current form ends anyway?
Without UNIFIL there would be no monitoring of this and given this is a UN deal, American brokered, I say American, they sent an Israeli Amos Hochstein to negotiate it, but UNIFIL is the UN itself in Lebanon, protecting the border, monitoring Israeli activity, they have been the eyes and ears making sure that Israel can’t get away with the same sort of dishonest claims they’ve often made about Gaza.
Reinforcing that, is the fact that Israel will now be able to complain that any monitoring they didn’t like by UNIFIL would be a breach and they would then be able to take that to the US and France for adjudication. Who will they side with? UNIFIL or Israel? Answers in the comments, I have an idea how that would go.
And just to reinforce the face that the 60 day ceasefire may not hold up anyway, any threats to Israeli security by Hezbollah, would be met with military action.
So we have a deal, that potentially undermines UNIFIL whenever the Israeli’s complain, with the US and France virtually guaranteed to side with Israel and not the UN peacekeepers – I hope to be proven wrong, but I don’t see it. Israel can retaliate if it feels threatened by Hezbollah and Hezbollah have been ordered to scuttle their own bases and withdraw from Southern Lebanon completely. By the time Israeli troops withdraw they may be able to re-enter immediately afterwards since this widely hailed ceasefire plan has an expiry date on it and functionally it is unlikely to be extended, largely why Netanyahu will have agreed to it, it makes him look reasonable, especially in the way this ceasefire is being reported.
It is functionally a watered down version of UN resolution 1701 which states Israel cannot cross into Lebanon, seeking to rehabilitate Israel as being reasonable, when actually it has cost them nothing but time on the face of it.
Have Hezbollah agreed to this? Well yes is the short answer to that, this deal has actually been worked out between Israel and Hezbollah, so there is the small matter of the Lebanese government itself agreeing to it still to be worked out. They are meeting to discuss measures at time of writing, I’d be surprised if they didn’t accept it and that there was a formal ceasefire in place from today, but how long it lasts from today is another matter.
Netanyahu declared the deal was settled before his own cabinet had even voted on it, though it did in fact pass, notably even the hard right Bezalel Smotrich agreed to it in the end, making it even more a virtual certainty that this deal will not go past 60 days, he certainly wouldn’t have voted for a permanent ceasefire, and his usual sidekick in all things fascist, Itamar Ben-Gvir nailed that point on, having called this 60 day ceasefire, a humanitarian pause is basically all it is, an historic mistake and he didn’t back it, issuing a short statement saying:
‘This is not a ceasefire. It's a return to the concept of silence for silence, and we've already seen where it leads. This agreement does not meet the goal of the war - to return the residents of the north safely home.
An agreement with the Lebanese army is an agreement on ice. The Lebanese army does not have the authority at all, and certainly not the ability to overcome Hezbollah.
In order to leave Lebanon, we must have our own security belt. We have already seen it, that we must not trust anyone but ourselves. Otherwise, the missiles will be launched at Manara, Avivim, Kiryat Shmona, the entire north and the entire State of Israel, and finally we will have to return to Lebanon again.
This is a historical mistake!”’
He has also gone on record as saying if this ceasefire lasts past the 60 day mark, he will collapse the government over this, which he can and which is why this can only ever be temporary for as long as the Israeli government is held to ransom by the far right.
Reinforcing the fact that this may be a trap, is a report from Israeli spokesperson, the blood pressure boiling account of Amichai Adraee, Israel’s answer to Matt Miller, who posted:
‘Under the direction of the political echelon, the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon went into effect this morning (Wednesday) at 04:00, and the IDF is operating accordingly. IDF forces are positioned in their positions in southern Lebanon. During the last hour, IDF forces identified several vehicles inside Lebanese territory carrying suspects inside a restricted area. The forces opened fire to prevent them from reaching the area, forcing them to move away. The Air Force is on alert to operate throughout Lebanon, and the air defense system is on high alert. So far, there has been no change in the Home Front Command's instructions. The IDF will act against anyone who tries to violate the ceasefire agreement, and will not allow the security of the citizens of the State of Israel to be harmed.’
How do you now they were suspects if you just drove them off? Air Force on high alert, if this guy is anything to go by I give the ceasefire days, but it also shows they’re looking for an excuse to resume atrocities in Lebanon, they want to catch Hezbollah out, so they can use exactly the same excuses about them as they did Hamas in Gaza. Lebanon is a sovereign state, but if they can paint a picture of Hezbollah running the show and being out of control, Zionist media will happily convey that messaging and we’ve seen already where things will escalate from there.
There’s another angle to this too and that is the claim from Netanyahu that he wants to withdraw from Lebanon to deal with Iran. Hezbollah are Iranian allies, if Israel strike Iran again, and we are still awaiting an Iranian response for the last time Israel attacked them, so arguably further attacks on Iran, Israel might hope will provoke Hezbollah. If I was Iran, I’d let this ceasefire period play out before responding.
Whatever happens, at this moment in time, the Lebanese government have not yet agreed to it, and there are traps Israel are hoping Hezbollah will fall into, all whilst Israel sits in southern Israel still, no sign of getting ready to withdraw, all with their fingers seemingly still on the trigger. This is not peace, this is not a ceasefire, this is an uneasy temporary truce and nothing more and it’s a matter of time before it gets broken. Where some think this paves the way to peace for years, I can’t see it lasting 5 minutes, not after all we’ve witnessed Israel do and under the excuses they’ve given over the last 14 months.
Netanyahu has also bragged about having neutered Hezbollah and reduced it’s forces, but of course this is just a day or so after they launched their biggest attack to date on Israel, achieving an historic first as they did so. If Hezbollah were done, why make them retreat behind the Litani river? Get all the details of Hezbollah’s biggest strike on Israel to date in this video recommendation here as your suggested next watch and I’ll hopefully catch you on the next vid. Cheers folks.