The Wire - November 21, 2024

//The Wire//1700Z November 21, 2024//
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//BLUF: RUSSIA LAUNCHES POSSIBLE ICBM IN UKRAINE IN LIKELY RETALIATORY STRIKE FOR UKRAINE’S PRIOR ATACMS TARGETING.//
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-International Events-
Europe: Overnight Russia conducted a possible ICBM (or MRBM) attack in the Ukrainian district of Dnipropetrovsk. The exact target of the strike is unknown (nor likely matters much) as multiple munitions were observed to be striking the area from many miles away, possibly indicating the use of Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles (MIRVs). As such, it’s very likely that this strike was more about sending a message rather than its targeting effectiveness in the battlespace. The exact missile used remains unconfirmed, however the payload of each warhead was obviously a conventional munition or an inert training warhead.
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Analyst Comments: Some sources (mostly of Ukrainian origin) claim Russia launched an RS-26 RUBEZH ICBM from Astrakhan, which in the absence of any quasi-reliable information is just as good a theory as any. Other theories suggest it may have been a new experimental Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) so as to have an increased payload capacity. Various unnamed “western sources” have claimed that Russia did not launch an ICBM, and that the strike was carried out by some other experimental weapons platform.
If confirmed to be an ICBM strike, this would mark the first use of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles in combat. Considering this potential, and this new development being outside the scope of normalcy, American officials might do well to change their perspective and re-examine their decisions. It doesn’t make it right, or even moral. But if Russia is willing to use an ICBM in Ukraine, even a conventional one, perhaps a reexamining of the situation might be worthwhile. Generally speaking, when a man uses an ICBM one might be inclined to think he is rather serious. Right now, bureaucrats in Washington are surely reading reports written by some junior analyst, and scoffing at the attack being conducted with conventional (or even training) warheads…completely oblivious to the fact that if this was an ICBM (or even some new MRBM), and one that that had been outfitted with its standard payload, they might not be alive to read that report in the first place.
Speaking more strategically from a prepared citizen perspective, much can be learned from the first non-training use of an ICBM launch. We now have a wealth of data to consider, and the early-warning indicators that this launch was about to take place.
Multiple indicators were present, and observable by the public, over the past 24 hours. Though at the time, none were definitive proof of what was about to happen. American strategic radio traffic on the High Frequency Global Communications System (HFGCS) increased significantly in the hours before the launch, with many radio messages being sent yesterday evening. Seeing as absolutely zero E-4B NIGHTWATCH or E-6 MERCURY aircraft were observed on flight tracking websites…this absence was probably a clue. HFGCS radio chatter usually involves these aircraft, so no aircraft showing up on flight tracking sites could indicates that aircraft were indeed airborne…but flying with their transponders turned off as they would do in a time of war. These airframes are critical components of America’s strategic force, with the main mission of coordinating communications in the event of a nuclear war.
On the other side of the wire, Russian strategic aircraft were also observed to be making slightly abnormal flights. Again, not enough out of the ordinary to be worthy of mention on their own, but in hindsight Russia’s version of their “doomsday” planes were absolutely conducting operations in support of this launch.
All of this points to the challenges of predicting major world events. Cleary, the U.S. government does not respect or value their own citizens enough to even address this potential ICBM launch. In classic Pentagon fashion, all information that has come from the American perspective has come in the form of “unnamed western sources”, continuing the Pentagon’s habit of not addressing the American people directly so as to maintain deniability and avoid culpability. Whether an actual RS-26 was used or not is irrelevant; a Medium-Range Ballistic Missile (MRBM) would generate the same level of concern among American taxpayers.
Considering all factors, Russia could indeed have warned the United States directly before the launch, and even if Russia did not, the United States had hours (and probably several days) of warning. The issue is not that the U.S. government somehow got caught unaware of a large missile launch, this most certainly did not happen. Either by Russia directly telling them about the launch, or NORAD detecting it themselves, the United States was well aware of the missile long before it ever lifted off. The issue is that the U.S. government didn’t tell the American people about it, or issue any sort of heightened civil defense-style warning. Even though American intelligence collection sensors without question knew the missile would be impacting in Ukraine very shortly after launch, ignoring the magnitude of this goes beyond the pale of what should be considered normal in any society. Taking the position of “well, we knew it was going to hit Ukraine so we didn’t bother informing the American people so as to avoid undue panic” sounds a lot like “we’re ignoring the ICBM launch because our own actions provoked this, so we want to cover it up”.
At minimum, the government that is dragging the American people towards a very hot global war owes their citizens some level of explanation. So far, the information exchange process to alleviate the concerns of American taxpayers has not entirely been a priority among nearly all politicians. Russia potentially launches a nuclear-capable missile with multiple re-entry vehicles…and multiple members of Congress have spent the morning reaffirming their support for Israel on social media.
Seeing as extremely long range missiles have the potential to impact all life on Earth, a press conference to clarify details of the incident in Ukraine would be greatly appreciated. Perhaps to include some fancy charts and poster sized images printed out at Office Depot to show some sort of half-hearted effort. If the U.S. government wants to alleviate the concerns of the American people, that would be a great first step. Rumors from unnamed sources speaking on conditions of anonymity will not cut it anymore. Similarly, pretending that the American people are crazy for being concerned about this is gaslighting of the highest order that will no longer be acceptable among the populace. Currently, the American stance has largely just been to ignore it, highlighting what has already been known for decades. When something serious happens around the world, or even within the homeland, the American people are largely on their own.
The Russian Federation is very, very unlikely to resort to the use of nuclear weapons, for a variety of reasons. However, thinking more broadly, if Putin was indeed willing to use nuclear weapons to achieve victory in Ukraine…how exactly would he convey that to the United States? What measures would be taken to express the seriousness of his intentions? And most importantly, would it look any different from what Putin has already done?
Analyst: S2A1
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