The Wire - November 19, 2024

//The Wire// 2300Z November 19, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINE CONDUCTS MISSILE STRIKES IN BRYANSK. FARMER PROTEST BEGINS IN LONDON. INVESTIGATION INTO BALTIC SEA CABLE INCIDENT CONTINUES AMID TENSIONS.//
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-International Events-
Europe: Overnight, Ukraine conducted long-range attacks against Russia with American-made munitions. Initial reports indicate 6x ATACMS missiles were launched at targets within the Russian region of Bryansk. AC: As with all data surrounding the Ukrainian war, battle damage is challenging to assess. Russian sources claim their S-400 systems shot 5x of the missiles down, however the sourcing of this data is obviously suspect at best. However, it may be a moot point now, as the world awaits Russia’s response.
In the Baltic, the investigation into the recent cable cuttings continues, with very few details remaining conclusive. The Telia cable connecting Lithuania and Sweden was cut at around 0800Z Sunday morning. The next day, the C-LION1 cable connecting Finland and Germany was cut at around 0200Z Monday morning. The companies who own the cables have also stated that they could remain offline for several more days as repairs get underway.
United Kingdom: This morning the farmer protest in London began, with tens of thousands of participants taking to the streets of London to protest the current crackdown on farming. Specifically, farmers have expressed dissent regarding a series of new inflammatory tax policies, tax breaks for foreign goods which undercut British products, a 20% inheritance tax that is perceived as intended to break up family farms, and the government authorizing misleading food labels that obscure nation of origin.
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Analyst Comments: As more scrutiny is placed on the cable-cutting incidents in the Baltic, more details paint an interesting picture.
Regarding who the culprit of these cable incidents may be, most theories of what caused the incident center around two main scenarios: either a Chinese cargo vessel intentionally dragging anchor at a critical moment, or Russian clandestine activities. The United States, also technically having the capability to tap and/or cut undersea cables naturally remains a suspect due to this military capability. Unlike the Nord Stream pipeline crisis of 2022, the United States likely has less motivation to attack these specific communications cables, though the potential for this to be a false-flag operation (as Russia has insinuated) does remain a detail worthy of some level of consideration. However, with almost no definitive proof to lean on, if the investigation reveals this incident was a deliberate act, the current geopolitical environment strongly suggests this was probably an act of sabotage conducted by Russia (or China, in partnership with Russia) as a means of retaliation for developing events in Ukraine.
The technical means of the cables themselves also provide more details than at first glance. Both cables, while largely running perpendicular routes along the sea floor, do intersect at one point. Statements from the companies who own the cables indicate that both were cut very close to each other, at this intersection point. However, the timing remains suspect. If the companies are not mistaken, and their data is accurate, these cables were cut within a few meters of each other…but almost a full day apart. This discrepancy will need to be cleared up during the investigation; it would have been far less suspicious if both had been cut at the same time at a rather unlucky point, as a dragging anchor could be the most likely slightly-less-nefarious culprit. This exact scenario occurred last year as a Chinese ship damaged several Baltic Sea cables in this manner back in October, 2023. If the investigation reveals that the cables were indeed damaged at the same time and in the same place, the anchor-dragging theory becomes the more likely possibility. If it can be confirmed that a ship dragged anchor across these cables, the next burden of proof lies with the intent of such action. Cables are usually placed well out of the usual areas that a ship would need to anchor in, so a ship going out of their way to drop anchor at just the exact spot to sever the internet connection between four NATO members…will result in someone has some explaining to do.
In addition to the shenanigans in the Baltic Sea, some concern has been placed on a Russian “research” ship loitering in the vicinity of undersea cables off the coast of Ireland. The Auxiliary General Oceanographic Research (AGOR) vessel YANTAR (Note: Classified as an ‘AGI’ an intelligence collection ship, by NATO) was located within the Irish Economic Exclusion Zone (EEZ) a few days ago near the Isle of Man, and was escorted away from the undersea cables by the Irish Navy overnight. The YANTAR is one of the main vessels assigned to the Russian GUGI Directorate, an ultra-secret arm of the Russian armed forces whose main mission is underwater espionage. The YANTAR’s mission set is usually two-fold, to use her onboard Deep Submergence Rescue Vehicles (DSRVs) to rescue Russian submariners in the event of an emergency, and also to use these mini-subs to conduct espionage via tapping into undersea cables…or laying explosives to sever the cables altogether. As such, the presence of the YANTAR is completely unsurprising…of course, the YANTAR would be located over NATO’s cables, that’s her main mission set. All GUGI ships and submarines are frequently located in the vicinity of NATO cables, as they routinely conduct training, surveys, and other operations in the vicinity of sensitive sites. Consequently, the presence of the YANTAR doesn’t necessarily mean that Russia was planning to cut these specific Irish cables. Rather, the focus on this ship doing what she always does, is probably being overexaggerated due to the two cable cutting incidents in the Baltic Sea. Nevertheless, a Russian ship that is known to take part in cable-cutting operations, being located over the top of cables, is slightly disconcerting.
More broadly, the ball is entirely in Russia’s court with regards to how the situation will develop. The United States has done nothing but escalate the war for years, reinforcing a defeat instead of seeking to shape and resolve the conflict in the diplomatic space. Even the war-hawks who claim that the entire goal was not to win the war, but to bleed Russia of resources, are finding out that this exact scenario has happened in reverse…to the United States and NATO. The west now finds itself in a logistical predicament that will take decades to recover from, and only historians will be able to tell who bled whom more, Russia or NATO. Here and now, the situation is tough. American political and military leadership, on all sides of the spectrum, may find that the Cold War mentality of “fight the war over there, so we don’t fight it over here” has indeed brought the war to the homeland anyway. Consequently, we may find that due to fighting wars “over there” with such exuberance, we are strapped for resources to defend our own homeland during its hour of maximum danger.
Analyst: S2A1
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