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US allows Ukraine to use long-range missile strikes into Russia
What could Ukraine strike in Russia with long-range US missiles?
In a major change, President Joe Biden has lifted a ban on Ukraine using U.S. long-range missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia, according to reports.

Ukraine could carry out the first strikes using ATACMS, U.S.-provided long-range missiles, in the coming days, three sources told Reuters.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and some in Washington have long pushed for the U.S. to greenlight the long-range strikes amid past concerns the move would involve the U.S. more directly and escalate the 999-day-old invasion.
Although the White House has yet to officially announce the policy change, Deputy National Security adviser Jon Finer cited the deployment of more than 10,000 North Korean troops to join Russia's forces in the war, calling it "a significant Russian escalation that involves the deployment of a foreign country's forces on its own territory."
"The United States has been clear that we would respond to that. We've been clear to the Russians that we would respond to that," Finer said Monday.
Its hesitation stemmed from fears that allowing Ukraine to carry out the strikes would involve the U.S. more directly in the conflict and provoke a harsh response from Putin, who has long threatened to deploy nuclear weapons in the conflict.

The Ukrainian military needs Pentagon assistance to launch ATACMS at their longest range. Putin has said that would amount to direct U.S. involvement in the war.
Why long-range missiles could be either a silver bullet or a powder keg for Ukraine-Russia war

Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that if the missiles are used to strike targets "deep" inside Russia, then it could lead to a sea change in relations with the West, state media reported.
In September, amid mounting speculation the U.S. was mulling a policy change, Putin said it would constitute the "direct involvement of NATO countries, the United States and European countries in the war in Ukraine."

This would, Putin cautioned, drastically alter the nature of the conflict, and Russia would be forced to take "appropriate measures" in response. Putin did not specify what those measures would be.

In October, Putin changed Russia's nuclear doctrine, saying Russia's defense ministry would offer a "range of responses" if NATO policies on long-range strikes changed.
What are ATACMS?
ATACMS − Army Tactical Missile Systems – are Lockheed Martin-manufactured missiles with a range of up to 190 miles. In July, the Army awarded Lockheed Martin a $226 million contract to produce the missile systems.
ATACMS are already in the hands of Ukraine's military, which the U.S. has allowed to strike targets inside Russia close to the border.

ATACMS "are incredibly costly," Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh told reporters on Monday. They are in limited supply, so we're not going to dip below our own readiness levels.
Military experts and officials say Ukraine's use of the powerful long-range U.S. weapons may enable Kyiv to damage military targets including supply lines, and troop and weapons systems far from its border. It is not clear whether Ukraine's use of ATCAMS would fundamentally alter the course of the war.
Ukraine could use the missiles to hit Russian bases farther from the Ukrainian border that Russia relies on to launch airstrikes and ground attacks. Up to now, Ukraine has lacked the tools to strike those bases, Fred Kagan, a senior fellow and director of the critical threats project at the American Enterprise Institute.

“The more that the Ukrainians are able to strike these perfectly legitimate military targets that the Russians are using to attack Ukraine, the more countermeasures the Russians have to take that reduce the effectiveness of Russian military action,” he said.

Kagan cited a Ukrainian strike on a Russian arsenal around 240 miles from the border in September that demolished several months' worth of ammunition.

Singh said long-range missiles likely would not be able to reach specific Russian airfields. "They have moved those out of the ATACMS range, so that wouldn't have an impact," she said.

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