How Bitcoin Prediction Markets Will Change Elections.

Bitcoin prediction markets have emerged as a powerful new force that will fundamentally change how we forecast elections. Unlike traditional polling, these markets reveal real-time insights backed by actual money at stake. In this episode, James Pierog breaks down how prediction markets work, why they're more accurate than polls, and what makes Bitcoin the perfect foundation for this revolution in electoral forecasting. Learn why major media outlets are starting to pay attention to prediction markets, how they could prevent election manipulation, and what this means for the future of democracy. We dive deep into the technology, the game theory, and the fascinating implications of combining Bitcoin's unstoppable nature with the wisdom of crowds. Whether you're interested in Bitcoin, elections, or the future of forecasting, this conversation will change how you think about predicting political outcomes.

James on Twitter: https://x.com/BillyHongBeats
Bitcoin Prediction Market: https://www.bitcoinprediction.info/

0:00 - Intro
1:38 - Arriving at Bitcoin Prediction Market
12:03 - Comparing to Polymarket and crypto model
16:37 - Unchained & Coinkite
18:31 - Prediction algorithm
21:30 - Predicting and potentially preventing conflicts
30:41 - BOLT12, ecash and DLCs
37:28 - Zaprite and SOTE
39:01 - BPM vs Polymarket UX simplicity
44::36 - Oracle problem and centralization
49:13 - Trust and debt
57:06 - Singapore's authoritarianism unlocked bitcoin for James
1:08:32 - Psychic powers and tools for liberation
1:24:37 - Feather forks and ordinals
1:31:17 - Monetizing art and industry power games
1:38:35 - Adoption inertia and timing
1:43:34 - Native use case and exchange theory of value
1:47:27 - Final thoughts

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