Shock Poll In PA (Trump Up By 6)… More Intriguing News On Toss-Up States (New Hampshire & Minnesota)

Posted • October 31, 2024: We've seen a lot of momentum going in the direction of former President Donald Trump in the last couple of weeks in the polls. In that time, he's even taken over the popular vote poll. He's now leading by 0.5 in the national vote, 48.5 to 48. He's also up 1.0 in the battleground states. But there are a couple of interesting things to note, including a new shock poll from Echelon Insights, which is a well-thought of poll. The most interesting thing is what it has to say about Pennsylvania. It has Trump up by 6 points head to head with Harris, 52-46, and 5 points in the full field, 51-46.

📊 PENNSYLVANIA GE: @EchelonInsights

🟥 Donald Trump: 52%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 46%

#16 (2.8/3.0) | 10/27-30 | 600 LV

If Trump takes Pennsylvania, given the way the other states are leaning, he likely wins. Now, I would note it's a small poll, only 600. But it was also taken more recently than some of the other polls, so it may be capturing the Trump momentum from things like the Joe Rogan interview and other moves, as well as a rejection of Kamala Harris because of things like Joe Biden's "garbage" remarks. We'll have to look at how the poling continues to break to learn if others match it--that is, to see if it's a harbinger. Right now, it's a bit of an outlier, but it's definitely interesting. PA is already at 0.7 for Trump up in the average without that factored in; you can see the momentum there appears to be with Trump. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbPjv-TW4AAxhzI?format=jpg&name=large Then too, now the RCP has New Hampshire and Minnesota as toss-ups. Real Clear Politics just moved New Hampshire from "leans Harris" to "toss up." https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GbPBfnxXYAAzHOx?format=jpg&name=medium

There have been some recent polls, such as the New Hampshire poll that we reported--the New Hampshire Journal poll--that had Trump up by 0.4. Harris still has the lead there, but it's much tighter than they expected: https://www.nysun.com/article/new-hampshire-moves-to-toss-up-state-as-harriss-lead-narrows -- Then, too, there's Minnesota: In one of Minnesota’s latest polls, Trump is within the margin of error:

🟦 Harris 48% (+3)
🟥 Trump 45%

MinnPost | 1,734 LV | 10/16-22

House Majority Whip, Tom Emmer confirms that Minnesota is in play. 👀 Theoretically, if Trump could take New Hampshire, he could lose the Rust Belt and still make it to 270. Now, Harris still has the lead there but it's a problem for her that these possibilities are even cropping up, and it could be a sign things are slipping away from her generally.

RedState: Shock Poll in PA and More Intriguing News on Toss-Up States
https://redstate.com/nick-arama/2024/10/31/new-polling-in-pa-and-toss-up-states-n2181354