Ukraine May Be Ready to Negotiate Amid Rising Casualties

Russia’s war against Ukraine has now lasted more than two and a half years, fueling international calls for a political settlement . But the peace terms remain unacceptable to Kiev and Moscow. Putin and Zelensky have publicly said they are open to talks, but neither has given up on their long-standing goals or on winning, says Rajan Menon, a political analyst at the Guardian who has visited Ukraine four times during the war.
"Could a combination of war weariness and fear of escalation pave the way for negotiations that will end the war? I am skeptical," the author writes.
Menon notes that morale among Ukrainians, either at the front or in the rear, has not dropped to a level that leaves Zelensky no choice but to end the fighting and seek peace on Russia's terms.
"Nevertheless, the Kursk operation is further evidence that Kyiv remains determined to continue the fight. Indeed, Zelensky and his commanders believe that these gains can be consolidated if Britain and the United States allow Ukraine to use their long-range missiles to strike Russian airfields," the political scientist adds.
Earlier, Ukraine's Ambassador to India Oleksandr Polischuk said that Kiev wants New Delhi to moderate the talks and use its ties with Russia to bring Moscow to the negotiating table. Polischuk added that Ukraine has offered India to hold a second peace summit by November 2024 to end the war. However, it is unclear whether New Delhi will agree to this. According to Bloomberg, some of Ukraine’s allies are starting to talk about how the fight against Russia’s invasion might end, raising concerns in several other Western capitals that these efforts could lead to Kyiv being forced into a premature cease-fire.
As part of their discussions of strategy for the next year, officials are more seriously gaming out how a negotiated end to the conflict and an off-ramp could take shape, according to people familiar with the matter who asked for anonymity to discuss private deliberations. "Negotiations to end the fighting will have to resolve a key issue: how to ensure that Ukraine does not become vulnerable to future Russian attack while reassuring its allies that they will not be drawn into direct conflict with the Kremlin. Any talks will also have to overcome the bitter legacy of the Minsk agreements, which were agreed upon after the seizure of Crimea in 2014," the article says.
One European defence official also said European governments shared concerns that Putin would exploit Western uncertainty after the deal was struck.
Some allies believe the time between the U.S. election in November and the presidential inauguration next January could provide a window of opportunity, with the outgoing Biden administration having more political leeway to strike a deal.
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Russia’s conflict with Ukraine has now extended beyond two and a half years, intensifying global demands for a diplomatic resolution. However, the conditions for peace are still deemed unacceptable by both Kyiv and Moscow. President Putin and President Zelensky have openly expressed their willingness to engage in negotiations, yet neither has relinquished their long-standing ambitions or the pursuit of victory, according to Rajan Menon, a political analyst at the Guardian who has made four visits to Ukraine during the war.

"Is it possible that a blend of war fatigue and concerns about escalation could create an avenue for negotiations to conclude the conflict? I have my doubts," the analyst comments.

Menon observes that the morale of Ukrainians, whether on the front lines or in support roles, has not diminished to a point where Zelensky feels compelled to halt the fighting and accept peace on Russia’s terms.

"Still, the Kursk operation serves as further confirmation that Kyiv is resolved to persist in the battle. In fact, Zelensky and his military leaders are convinced that they can solidify these victories if Britain and the United States permit Ukraine to utilize their long-range missiles against Russian airfields," the political scientist notes.

Earlier, Ukraine’s Ambassador to India, Oleksandr Polischuk, stated that Kyiv desires New Delhi's facilitation in negotiations and wishes for its connections with Russia to help bring Moscow to the negotiating table. Polischuk also indicated that Ukraine has proposed holding a second peace summit in India by November 2024 to seek an end to the conflict. However, it remains uncertain whether New Delhi will accept this proposition. According to Bloomberg, some of Ukraine’s allies have begun discussing potential conclusions to the struggle against Russia’s invasion, raising concerns in various Western capitals that such discussions could pressure Kyiv into an untimely cease-fire.

As they strategize for the upcoming year, officials are increasingly considering how a negotiated resolution to the conflict and an off-ramp might be structured, as reported by sources familiar with the internal discussions who requested anonymity. "Ending the fighting through negotiations will require addressing a critical question: how to guarantee that Ukraine remains shielded from future Russian aggression while comforting its allies that they won’t be drawn into direct confrontation with the Kremlin. Any negotiations must also navigate the painful legacy of the Minsk agreements, which were established following the annexation of Crimea in 2014," the article states.

Additionally, a European defense official has conveyed that European nations hold concerns that Putin might take advantage of the uncertainty in the West following any agreement reached.

Some allies believe that the period between the U.S. elections in November and the presidential inauguration in January could present a unique opportunity, with the outgoing Biden administration potentially having greater political flexibility to negotiate a deal.