The Wire - October 21, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z October 21, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: IMEX NAVAL DRILLS BEGIN. FLASH FLOODING STRIKES NEW MEXICO. WAR IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES TO ESCALATE.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: The situation deteriorated somewhat over the weekend via an increase in Hezbollah and Hamas targeting efforts in Israel. Hezbollah launched a targeted attack on PM Netanyahu himself, with three drones allegedly being launched from Lebanon with the goal of targeting his personal residence in Caesarea. At least one of these drones was not interdicted and successfully struck a building within Netanyahu’s compound. No casualties were reported as a result of the strike.
In Lebanon, Israeli targeting in Beirut has increased substantially over the past few weeks. Israeli forces have started issuing evacuation orders for some of the southern suburbs of Beirut, though not yet to the degree observed so far in Gaza.
Over the weekend, significant naval exercises began in the Indian Ocean. Known as the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) Maritime Exercise (IMEX), this annual naval exercise was conducted this year with the notable participation of Russia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iran (among others).
-HomeFront-
Washington: Authorities have formally announced that both pilots of the EA-18G Growler which crashed on Mount Rainier a few days ago were killed in the crash. Authorities have not stated if either attempted to eject prior to the crash, though an investigation is ongoing into the cause of this training accident.
Texas: Yesterday afternoon a sightseeing helicopter crashed into an SBA Communications radio tower in Houston. All four people onboard the helicopter were killed in the crash. AC: The radio tower was only partially lit at the time, a detail which had been posted via the FAA Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) 10/073.
New Mexico: Significant flash flooding was reported throughout Roswell, causing widespread damage. Roughly 5.78 inches of rain fell in Roswell Saturday night, the most precipitation ever recorded in the area. This caused widespread flash flooding throughout the city, resulting in over 300 people requiring rescue via National Guard assets. At least two fatalities have been reported so far due to the flooding.
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Analyst Comments: Though the IMEX drill is somewhat routine among BRICS nations, Russia and Saudi Arabia taking part likely signals that this exercise is shifting from a routine drill to a more power-projection and alliance-building nature (or at least, moreso than is typical for such joint drills). This has been hinted at in various diplomatic circles via the Saudis’ increasing relations with Iran. Allegedly, the Saudis have invited Iranian forces to conduct joint follow on drills in the Red Sea at some point, though for now this is just rumor. What is far more certain is that Russia has increasingly taken part in naval exercises throughout the region, likely with the goal of strengthening ties among the opposition to American hegemony in the region. In short, the side-stepping of American power in the region is continuing, along with efforts to undermine and render irrelevant most of America’s foreign policy. However, as naval drills are usually a display of hard-power, these moves indicate that this indirect diplomacy may at some point become more confrontational in nature. This dynamic will be most perceptible at the upcoming BRICS summit, which formally begins tomorrow in Russia.
Analyst: S2A1
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