Will Western Main Battle Tanks Turn the Tide in Ukraine? What do Russian Gains in Soledar Mean?

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Update on Russian military operations in Ukraine for January 13, 2022.

- Russian advances near Soledar and Bakhmut contradict “Ukrainian offensive momentum” narrative;

- Russian operations are consistent with the “demilitarization” objective for the special military operation;

- Bakhmut & Soledar are fortified cities along one of Ukraine’s last defensive lines in the Donbass region;

- West is announcing plans to send Western main battle tanks including Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks;

- Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 tanks use different ammunition & both require an additional crew member (loader) increasing training demands for Ukrainian forces;

- The large variety of equipment the West is sending will create additional burdens for Ukrainian forces without any notable benefit;

- Western main battle tanks have proven to be vulnerable to (Russian-made) modern anti-tank weapons even under relatively ideal conditions;

- Ukrainian forces will be going into battle without sufficient artillery or air cover and facing off against Russian forces reinforced with an additional 300k men, new defenses, and an influx of new weaponry;

References:

Washington Post - Russia claims to control Soledar, a battlefield gain after months in retreat:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/11/soledar-bakhmut-russia-war-ukraine/
Congress of the US Congressional Budget Office - The US Military's Force Structure: A Primer (explanation of the size and composition of a US armored brigade):
https://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/114th-congress-2015-2016/reports/51535-fsprimer.pdf
NYT - Russia is building a vast network of trenches, traps and obstacles to slow Ukraine’s momentum. Will it work?:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/12/14/world/europe/russian-trench-fortifications-in-ukraine.html

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