The Wire - September 18, 2024

//The Wire//1800Z September 18, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SUSPICIOUS INCIDENT OCCURS AT TRUMP RALLY IN LONG ISLAND. UKRAINE STRIKES MAJOR RUSSIAN ARMS DEPOT. ANOTHER WAVE OF EXPLODING DEVICES STRIKES LEBANON.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: As expected, another wave of device explosions has struck Lebanon. This morning, hundreds of handheld radios reportedly exploded throughout Beirut, in a probable continuation of yesterday’s targeting efforts by Israel. So far, handheld VHF/UHF radios have been targeted, along with sporadic reports of other consumer-grade electronics such as televisions, laptops, cellphones, etc.
Russia: Overnight, Ukrainian forces conducted a substantial strike on an ammunition storage facility in Toropets, Russia. The resulting explosion was so substantial it was detected as an earthquake by local seismic sensors.
-HomeFront-
New York: This morning, reports circulated involving explosives being found the vicinity of President Trump’s rally in Long Island. A suspicious vehicle reportedly breached the security perimeter, prompting closer investigation that revealed the possible explosives. However, after the initial notice of this incident, the Nassau County Police Commissioner stated that the reports were false, and that the incident involved mistaking a training incident for a real-world incident.
AC: Details of this incident remain highly suspect, and contradict statements made by police. The driver of the vehicle initially fled from the scene on foot, taking cover in a wooded area adjacent to the site of the initial incident. It’s also not entirely clear as to if the personnel involved in the alleged training scare were actually law enforcement entities, nor is It clear as to how a training scenario could be undertaken in such proximity to a real-world event such as this. Training exercises are usually not conducted in any situation where a fake IED threat could be confused with a real threat; smaller training opportunities at real world events can happen (especially with the use of K9s), however a VBIED training scenario being conducted in the vicinity of such a high-profile event, is highly suspect. One detail that lends to the suspicious nature of this incident is that authorities have confirmed that the individual with the K9 that initially reported the explosives, has been detained.
Consequently, though entirely and completely speculative at this time, this event could have indeed been a real incident. Again, this is completely speculative, however the details of this event as presented to the public are highly suspicious and not in keeping with standard law enforcement practices involving training with explosive devices. Considering the lack of trust and confidence in the varying agencies assigned to protect Trump, the possibility (however speculative it may be) that there is more to this story than a simple training mistake, would be wise to consider.
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Analyst Comments: After a second wave of Israeli clandestine targeting in Lebanon, it’s extraordinarily likely that more Israeli IED attacks will continue, as previously stated. The continuance of this targeting vector also strengthens the assessment that Israel is preparing for future combat operations in Lebanon. This operation generally fits within the realm of “shaping fires”, and is doctrinally aligned with softening up an adversary before more substantial targeting takes place.
The precedent of this continuing operation cannot be overstated. No Positive Identification (PID) criteria, Hostile Intent/Hostile Act, or Rules of Engagement criteria have been provided by Israel lending any sort of legitimacy to these latest targeting efforts in an entirely separate sovereign nation. As a reminder, Lebanon is not Palestine.
It is not clear how Israeli targeting efforts such as these are in accordance with Article III of the Amended Protocol II of the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, which Israel is a legal signatory and participant of. Article III, Article VII, Section 2 states “It is prohibited to use booby-traps or other devices in the form of apparently harmless portable objects which are designed and constructed to contain explosive material”. As per Israel’s understanding comments on this exact section of the treaty, no dissension was made allowing for the legal use of these munitions in this arrangement.
It is also not clear as to if the United States provided Israel with the munitions used in these attacks. Additionally, the distribution of explosive-packed consumer grade electronics across international borders, to target personnel who are allegedly “terrorists”, only using Israel’s word that this is the case, providing ZERO justification for any kind of RoE adherence whatsoever, is probably not a slippery slope that many may want to go down. Separately, but equally pertinently, the fact that anytime Israel breaks their own laws, the caveat of “but Hamas/Hezbollah are also bad” must be added to any discussion of Israel’s behavior, is also analytically fatiguing and without question an information operation in and of itself. The level of subversion, gaslighting, and manipulation that has occurred to skew the entire conflict in such a way that these caveats much be added to any serious discussion of this event to maintain “neutrality”, has far surpassed the point of sheer psychosis. Israel has successfully linked their own behavior inversely to that of their adversaries, so that justification for Israeli actions is tacitly implied no matter what. The concept of “neutrality” itself is very subtly skewed in favor of Israel in most circumstances, so any analytical method is automatically assuming a baseline that very subtly favors Israel. This is most palpable among independent journalists whose lives are at extreme risk for even mentioning these subtleties. Though pointing this out is almost entirely a lost cause at this point, for posterity’s sake, this conflict is not a zero-sum game; pointing out Israel’s violation of western norms of warfare is not an endorsement of their adversaries. However, this nuanced concept is entirely lost on most of the western world, which will without question be detrimental in the long run, especially if a new era of horrific tactics is going to become acceptable to use at scale by nationstate-level entities. Insurgents and malign actors using brutal unconventional warfare tactics intended to maim and disfigure, usually among a civilian populace, is horrific enough. A nationstate using these tactics at an unprecedented industrial scale, and very likely with just as much concern for CIVCAS and with equally little oversight, is entirely different altogether.
If Israel has decided that this kind of targeting is acceptable to conduct under these conditions, quite literally nothing would prevent Israel from conducting similar operations within any nation to target those who they allege are supporters of their adversaries. Considering that the American taxpayer probably paid for these exploding pagers and radios at some point, the magnitude of these events is worthy of closer examination.
Analyst: S2A1
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