The Wire - September 5, 2024

//The Wire//2300Z September 5, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TENSIONS CONTINUE TO ESCALATE IN SOMALIA. NYPD COMMISSIONER RAIDED BY FBI. SWEDISH FOREIGN MINISTER RESIGNS.//
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-International Events-
France: The fire that destroyed a large historic cathedral in Saint-Omer has been confirmed to be arson, with the assailant being arrested shortly after the fire broke out. Yesterday authorities identified the arsonist as Joël Vigoureux, an infamous far-left, anti-Christian arsonist with an extensive criminal record. He has been convicted 25 times, with 8 convictions specifically for setting fire to Christian churches.
Sweden: Foreign Minister Tobias Billström unexpectedly announced his resignation yesterday. AC: Billström had been a key figure in Sweden becoming a NATO member, which was finalized back in March after many months of consternation and hold-ups from other NATO members.
Red Sea/HOA: Limited reporting on social media indicates the deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Egypt, via their respective proxies Somaliland and Somalia. Continuing the trend of escalating tensions in the region, Ethiopia has reportedly begun the staging of troops and equipment at the border of Somalia. AC: This is likely in response to Egypt announcing large-scale military exercises within Somalia. Egypt has deployed thousands of soldiers to take part in training exercises in Somalia, further strengthening ties with Mogadishu, in addition to diplomatically insulting Ethiopia, who also has thousands of soldiers deployed in a peacekeeping role in Somalia.
-HomeFront-
New York: This morning, eco-activists and pro-Palestine activists protested outside the headquarters of Citibank in NYC. Most demonstrators were arrested after blocking the main entrance to the facility.
In Queens, the residence of the NYPD Commissioner was raided by the FBI this afternoon. Commissioner Caban’s other residence in Hamilton Heights was also raided at the same time. AC: The reason for the raids has not been publicly disclosed, however it’s probably linked to the FBI targeting of various New York officials under the larger umbrella of anti-corruption and/or campaign finance violations. Some sources claim that the raid on the Commissioner is not linked to NYC Mayor Eric Adams’ corruption probe, however very few details remain public regarding these latest raids.
Ohio: This afternoon a large fire broke out at a chemical manufacturing plant in Akron. A fire was reported at the SMB International chemical factory on Rosemary Blvd, which produces and packages chemicals such as propane and methanol. District Fire Chief Sierjie Lash instituted a half-mile evacuation zone this afternoon, as this facility is completely surrounded by densely-packed residential neighborhoods, Section 8 housing, and the city airport.
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Analyst Comments: Both Egypt and Ethiopia are probably conducting mirroring military exercises as a posturing gesture. However the potential for this to deteriorate into a legitimate war is very high, considering the vitriol displayed by all parties for the past couple of years.
If the situation comes to a head and Ethiopia is planning some sort of ground offensive within Somalia, this could be challenging for many reasons. Firstly, Ethiopia has already had a significant military presence within the failed-state of Somalia for some time. Egypt also is also likely to feel the strain of being spread too thin, along with the obvious conflict on their own border with Gaza. Egypt seeking out a conflict thousands of miles from home, when Israeli forces have permanently occupied the Philidelphi Corridor, is very telling as to where Egyptian priorities lie. For Ethiopia, the next major milestone to watch out for would be for Ethiopia to recognize Somaliland as an independent state. If this happens, it’s likely to serve as a catalyst for a substantial conflict, which is likely to spark yet another more organized regional war.
Analyst: S2A1
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