The Wire - September 2, 2024

//The Wire//2000Z September 2, 2024//
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//BLUF: UNITED STATES HIJACKS VENEZUELAN PRESIDENTIAL AIRCRAFT. POSSIBLE US SERVICE MEMBERS ATTACKED IN TURKEY. HISTORIC FRENCH CHURCH BURNS IN SAINT OMER.//
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-International Events-
Turkey: This morning, Turkish government officials allegedly leaked Turkey’s bid to join BRICS. AC: Very few details have leaked, however it’s likely that Turkey has secretly been in talks to join BRICS for many months, since the new additions of the UAE, Saudia Arabia, Iran, and others earlier this spring.
This morning, local Turkish media (and users on social media) published videos of what have been claimed to be US service members from the USS WASP ARG being assaulted/abused in the streets of Izmir during a routine port call. AC: The USS Wasp did arrive in Izmir yesterday, as confirmed by social media posts by U.S. Fleet Forces Command. However, it’s not clear as to if the people being assaulted in the viral videos that have circulated social media are indeed US service members. No statements by defense officials have emerged to confirm or deny this incident as of this report.
Middle East: US CENTCOM released a press statement over the weekend highlighting the wounding of 7 US service members during an operation in western Iraq. The report claims that 15 ISIS militants were killed during the operation, which was conducted in coordination with local Iraqi support.
Israel: Protests voicing opposition to Netanyahu ignited again last night. Domestic demonstrations against the Israeli government have been regular over the past few months, but after the discovery of 6 dead hostages in Gaza a few days ago, demonstrations have become more widespread.
France: Early this morning another major church fire broke out in Pas-de-Calais. The Church of the Immaculate Conception in Saint-Omer suffered a catastrophic fire, resulting in the collapse of the Steeple. The cause of the fire is not known. AC: This continues the trend of historic church fires throughout France, as this church was originally completed in 1859 and renovated in 2018.
Dominican Republic: The United States hijacked the personal aircraft of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. This was conducted via a covert operation in the Dominican Republic, as American operatives allegedly acting via the DoJ, DHS, and DoS stole the plane as it was parked on the ground.
Far East: Tensions between the Philippines and China again came to a head near the Sabina Shoal over the weekend, as another collision occurred between PLAN and Philippine Coast Guard vessels. AC: This is the third deliberate collision reported over the past few months, with Chinese and Filipino vessels routinely increasing harassment operations against each other, which now include routine and deliberate collisions between vessels.
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Analyst Comments: Very few details remain confirmed concerning the possible incident involving US service members in Turkey, however this situation bears very familiar hallmarks of previous incidents. The attack was carried out by the Youth Union of Turkey (TGB), a well-known revolutionary organization (comprised largely of a conglomeration of Socialists and Turkish Nationalists). Of note, this attack is not the first carried out by this group; nearly-identical attacks were carried out on US service members in 2011, 2013, and 2014. TGB is particularly fond of more-kinetic actions that take the form of restraining US service members and placing a bag over their head, echoing the historical tones of the organization’s Socialist origins. In any case, restraining, beating, and mock-executing US service members is a pastime of this organization that more broadly is often an indicator of Turkish sentiment throughout the region.
Regarding the theft of Maduro’s aircraft, questions remain both regarding the legality of seizing another nation’s diplomatic assets from within the sovereignty of another nation (i.e. the Dominican Republic), as well as the almost-certain retaliatory actions by Venezuela. At minimum, this operation has been the epitome of a tactical success, but strategic failure, and has created extreme vulnerabilities within every sector from infrastructure to organized crime…all for almost zero gain to the United States. Though it may seem excessive to lay such criticism on the US State Department (and other agencies) for carrying out this operation, the very real dangers that this foolhardy stunt are likely to bring about are no laughing matter.
Stealing a foreign Head of State’s aircraft is unheard of in the international community, especially if a state of war has not been declared. This is largely due to the generally recognized practices of diplomacy, and the diplomatic protections that are granted to the logistical equipment and staff that ensure international diplomatic efforts. The United States has a formalized diplomatic mission to Venezuela, and therefore is bound by a plethora of international (and domestic) agreements to remain civil in the international arena. As such, the United States committing Grand Theft Auto is unlikely to be considered to be in keeping with the highest traditions of the diplomatic services.
Adding salt to the wound is the very important detail of why the aircraft was in the Dominican Republic….peace talks. Maduro had traveled to the D.R. to participate in talks with his political opposition, following the questionable election that recently took place in Venezuela. It’s not immediately clear as to if the aircraft was actively being used to transport Maduro or his staff at the time of the theft, or if it was staged at the location on a more long-term basis (due to the Dominican Republic being a frequent intermediary location for Venezuelan negotiations).
In any case, this move is almost completely negligible in terms of assets seized, but absolutely effective in neutralizing any hope of reconciliation between Venezuela and the United States. If Maduro wants to play ball and retaliate, he has the means, motive, and opportunity to cause catastrophic and crippling damage via a variety of means, but especially the readily-accessible and vulnerable petroleum infrastructure for the both the North and South American continents. As this incident applies to the basic doctrine of warfare, it’s exceptionally ill-advised to steal an adversary’s $13 million aircraft to score minor political points when hundreds of billions of dollars worth of your own petroleum infrastructure (along with some of the largest oil deposits on the entire planet) are located within the Orinoco Belt immediately adjacent to (and within) the territorial waters of that same adversary.
Other factors that highlight the gross imbecility of this foolhardy operation are the thousands of American citizens located within Venezuela right now. Very little effort would be required of the Venezuelan government to turn these US Persons into hostages. Slightly more realistically, if an evacuation of American citizens is necessary, even the Taliban would be more likely to work with the US government to secure an evacuation than Maduro at this point. From Maduro’s perspective, right now would be an excellent time to parade a few American citizens in front of the cameras as “spies”, or otherwise cause untold problems for the United States…all with the knowledge of the upcoming US election. Even the US State Department’s own travel advisory for Venezuela states that “The Department has determined there is a high risk of wrongful detention of U.S. nationals in Venezuela. Security forces have detained U.S. citizens for up to five years. The U.S. government is not generally notified of the detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or granted access to U.S. citizen prisoners there”.
Furthermore, as Venezuelan gangs pour into the United States, Maduro seeks to gain immense benefit from taking advantage of this incident. Gangs such as Tren de Aragua (TdA) oppose Maduro, and have carried out violent attacks against governmental forces within Venezuela. If Maduro is able to bury-the-hatchet (or at least make a deal) with this gang (or others), he’ll have even more access to the many Venezuelan criminal syndicates which have already obtained a significant military foothold within the United States.
Even more broadly than tensions with Venezuela, if the US has set the precedent of stealing diplomatically-protected assets around the world, the situation with other nations hostile to the United States could become more serious as well. Now that the US has set the precedent, every single American diplomatic station is at risk of being targeted, even in nations which are friendly to the US. Though the risks to US Persons overseas may be slow to build, State Department personnel giving themselves awards or challenge coins for this operation is unlikely to mean much if the Diplomatic Security Service, USMC FAST teams, JTF or other agencies are called into action six months from now to defend a random diplomatic station’s assets overseas…all because of the actions of the State Department itself. Consequently, even if the State Department thinks that relations with Venezuela can’t get much worse, this political stunt has (at minimum) set a precedent to directly endanger the safety and security of Americans abroad, and very seriously impacted the nature of American diplomatic efforts around the globe.
Analyst: S2A1
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