The Wire - August 26, 2024

//The Wire//2200Z August 26, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAEL CONDUCTS AIRSTRIKES IN LEBANON. TELEGRAM FOUNDER ARRESTED IN FRANCE. HOUTHIS CONTINUE TO HONE TARGETING TACTICS.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: Yesterday at approximately 0500B Israeli forces conducted substantial airstrikes within southern Lebanon, reportedly targeting pre-staged Hezbollah rockets. Immediately in retaliation to these strikes, Hezbollah counterattacked by firing hundreds of rockets that Israeli forces did not successfully target. Due to this latest escalation, most commercial aviation has been sporadically halted throughout the region, and Israel has declared a state of emergency for the next 48 hours.
France: Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, was arrested by French authorities over the weekend. The arrest was made in conjunction with alleged violations of the European Union mandates within the Digital Services Act (DSA). AC: This arrest was made under many of the same conditions and allegations that other social media platform owners have faced, who do not abide by the EU’s censorship mandates. Durov is being prosecuted under the same blanket of threats that the EU has issued to Elon Musk and other social media giants. Consequently, the founder of Rumble, Chris Pavlovski, immediately departed Europe for his own safety, due to the precedent that has now been set.
Red Sea/HOA: Houthi targeting continues as before, with some change in tactics. Details of the targeting of the M/V Sounion have come to light, namely that the targeting was possibly not carried out by a cruise missile or unmanned vessel, but by explosive charges being affixed to the side of the vessel by Houthi militants in small craft. This theory is supported by the vessel reporting being shadowed for some time by militants in small craft. AC: Though the use of improvised Limpet mines to target vessels is not a new concept, (if true) this does mark a change in Houthi tactics, which over the past few months have become more broad and technically skilled.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – The Pentagon is moving forward with the latest round of fleet reduction efforts, and is reportedly planning to mothball 17 more vessels. This fleet reduction is allegedly due to the dwindling numbers of Merchant Mariners that are able to help crew and maintain various classes of support vessel. Most of the vessels marked for placement into “extended maintenance” are Fast Transport ships, and a few replenishment vessels.
AC: Of note, two expeditionary seabase vessels (the USS Lewis Puller and the USS Herschel “Woody” Williams) are on the chopping block, which signals the desperation of the fleet. The Puller is a brand-new vessel (being commissioned only in 2017) and has seen only seven years of service before being mothballed. The “Woody” Williams is even newer, only being commissioned in 2020, and having seen only four years of service.
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Analyst Comments: At this juncture, it would be safe to conclude that the Middle East peace talks have not been successful.
The strikes in Lebanon are probably the largest operation carried out by Israel in Lebanon in decades, with well over 45 different sites/towns reportedly being struck in some way. Right now, it is not clear as to if some sort of Israeli ground operation is planned (though this potential appears to be unlikely for the time being). Consequently, the potential for ground forces to become involved (to some degree) cannot be dismissed in the future as Israeli operations expand.
What’s less clear at the moment is which party is to blame for this latest serious escalation. If Israeli intelligence did indeed intercept the locations of dozens of pre-staged rocket sites, the question remains regarding how Hezbollah was able to launch hundreds of rockets within just a few minutes of the first Israeli strikes. So far, all of these details could point to any number of plausible theories. On the one hand, the retaliatory rocket launches could confirm that Israeli intelligence was accurate, and that the Israeli strikes may have been valid by western standards. On the other hand, since so few actual rocket sites seem to have been successfully targeted, and Hezbollah was able to launch hundreds of rockets after the first Israeli barrage, this could also indicate that Israel didn’t actually try to target valid military equipment/installations.
The truth is probably a blend of these two extremes; Israel probably wanted to kick the hornet’s nest at first to draw out rocket launch locations. Hezbollah likewise without question had (and still have) hundreds of rockets already in launch tubes pointed at Israel. Whether or not Hezbollah was planning to launch them first, we’ll never know (due to Israel’s allegedly “pre-emptive” strikes). In any case, these details are unlikely to matter much as the escalations continue.
Analyst: S2A1
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