Ukraine may exchange captured areas of Kursk region for territory of the Kharkiv region

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Ukraine may exchange captured areas of the Kursk region for territory of the Kharkiv region, writes Bild expert on open data analysis Julian Röpke.

According to him, over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have captured eight more villages in the Kursk region. Among them is Goncharovka to the west of Sudzha, as well as territories to the north of the city. At the same time, Röpke does not confirm the complete capture of Sudzha, noting that Ukrainian forces are only bypassing the city from the north. "From what we see today, it seems possible that the Ukrainian army will capture Sudzha in the coming days and may even hold it for an unpredictable period of time. If this happens, it may be able to exchange it for the Russian-held areas of the Kharkiv region or even hold it as a bargaining chip in future negotiations," Röpke writes.

He estimates the number of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group at just over 2,000 soldiers and 100 armored vehicles, while Russia has no ground reserves to stop them.

At the same time, Röpke notes, the Ukrainians are extremely vulnerable to drone attacks from the air; every day the Ukrainian Armed Forces lose 5-10 armored vehicles.

"For example, on Thursday, small groups of Ukrainian infantry fighting vehicles broke through up to 30 km deep into Russian territory. But since these vanguards were not covered from the air, they were destroyed by drones and missiles," the analyst notes.

However, as Röpke writes, it is still too early to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of the operation.