The Wire - August 9, 2024

//The Wire//2130Z August 9, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UKRAINIAN KURSK OFFENSIVE CONTINUES. ARRESTS CONTINUE IN U.K. FOR SPEECH CRIMES. TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH IN MIDDLE EAST.//
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-International Events-
Eastern Europe: The Ukrainian Kursk offensive continues amid Russian forces pouring into the region. Much confusion abounds as Ukraine seeks to cause as much damage as possible before Russian forces push them back via the inevitable counteroffensive. So far the Russian response has been limited throughout the region, however fierce fighting has been observed as the front becomes more established along the salient.
United Kingdom: British authorities have instituted an internet blackout of some police websites. The main Police.uk website now blocks all American IP addresses. AC: This is probably due to Americans (or British citizens using an American VPN) spamming their informant hotlines with fake reports.
Throughout England, Muslim Defense League (MDL) attacks continue, along with other factional violence. Yesterday a police officer was stabbed during a traffic stop in Gateshead.
Around the nation arrests continue to draw the ire of the native Anglo population as judges crack down on offensive speech with an exceptionally heavy hand. British authorities continue to double-down on threatening to extradite and prosecute those outside the U.K. for offensive speech online.
Middle East: Despite the lack of any substantial public information, preparations continue throughout the region concerning a widening war. As the delay in Iran’s response goes on, the theories widen regarding what might actually happen. Some say Iran will essentially do nothing but conduct a minor strike somewhere random, while others are convinced the delay is due to Iran preparing for an even larger counterattack than last time. Though very little information in the public space indicates what Iran will do, clearly governments with access to better intelligence are expending significant resources to prepare for such an attack. Throughout Israel, bomb shelters have been opened, and politicians have moved critical meetings to underground bunkers. The USS WASP ARG has arrived in port Limmasol, Cyprus as even more US Navy assets stage throughout the region.
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Analyst Comments: It’s possible that all of this, both Iran’s response and the preparation for it, are a “made-for-TV” information operation. This is a complicating factor on it’s own, but another variable is worth considering as well. Israel’s military goal in conducting these specific airstrikes targeting key leaders was to provoke an Iranian response. The longer Iran waits to retaliate, the higher the chance is of Netanyahu losing patience and launching a pre-emptive strike. Consequently, it’s worth considering the possibility that the ball might not solely be in Iran’s court. At this point, Israel (and probably the United States) may be committed to a response, even if Iran doesn’t do anything substantial in retaliation. This could explain both the rhetoric and rumor that Iran probably won’t do anything major, but on the Israeli/American side, preparations continue.
Another factor to consider is the impact of internal politics within Iran. This morning Western media sources claimed that while the Ayatollah and various military leadership are very much in favor of directly targeting Israel, the newly elected President is not so, and more concerned with de-escalation. As a reminder, President Pezeshkian is only in office right now because his predecessor was killed in a helicopter crash under very suspicious circumstances a few months ago. Though the position of President in Iranian politics is largely symbolic, it is the tiniest bit suspicious that the one guy who was put into some level of power due to the suspicious death of his predecessor is somehow the same guy who hesitates to strike Israel. Of course, all of this could be false (as western media has much motivation to lie about Iranian internal politics). But in the interest of understanding the likelihood of this war expanding, these factors (however unconfirmed and based on conjecture they may be), might be worth considering.
Analyst: S2A1
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