The Wire - August 8, 2024

//The Wire//2130Z August 8, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: CRACKDOWNS CONTINUE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM. EARTHQUAKES STRIKE JAPAN. BOEING STARLINER CREW POSSIBLY STRANDED IN SPACE UNTIL NEXT YEAR.//
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-International Events-
Eastern Europe: The Ukrainian incursion into Russia continues as combat remains intense in the Kursk region. So far, the salient has widened a few kilometers along the border. Some reports indicate Russian authorities urging a total evacuation of the Kursk Oblast, but at this time it’s not possible to verify. Local evacuations of civilians in the vicinity of the salient are occurring, but how widespread these efforts are is unknown.
AC: Propaganda efforts by all sides make verification of details challenging, but speaking more broadly, fighting undoubtedly continues in the region. Russia waited to long to respond, and are now paying the price. The echoes of classic Russian warfare doctrine can be felt in this lethargic response, contributing to the embarrassment: waiting for adversaries to stretch themselves thin along a deep advance into enemy terrain (before ultimately encircling them and reducing the pocket) may not have been the best plan for this situation considering the close proximity of Kursk to the border. This Ukrainian escapade will undoubtedly come to an end in Russia’s favor, but the costs of doing so have already been more than Russia is willing to admit.
Far East: Geological activity has been observed in southern Japan, with several 7.0+ magnitude earthquakes noted over the past 24 hours. Japan also issued their first-ever “megaquake” warning for the region. So far, damage reports have been minimal, and the tsunami risk is assessed to be negligible as well.
United Kingdom: General unrest continues amid a lull in rioting in some areas. Anti-immigration demonstrations have given way in some areas to extremely large counterprotests in support of immigration. Varying factions throughout the U.K. have also increased activity, as organizational efforts continue on all sides. The Muslim Defense League (a loosely organized conglomeration of Muslim activists) has begun armed patrols of territory they influence, resulting in random attacks. This comes amid reports that British authorities have begun to arrest citizens, not just for allegedly “hateful” content shared online, but for sharing allegedly inaccurate information. Recent statements by authorities indicate this targeting has expanded to include those outside the United Kingdom, possibly to include non-British citizens.
On the other side of the wire, British citizens pursuing anti-immigration measures have conducted deception operations to confuse and confound British authorities. Fake “far-right” demonstrations have been announced, drawing a large police and Muslim Defense League presence to show up for an event that did not occur, causing a waste of resources on both sides. Citizens (as well as those abroad who are supporting anti-immigration measures) have also spammed the government informant hotlines with fake messages, causing even more strain on police resources who are motivated (and probably required) to respond to every complaint of “far-right” activity. Though challenging to verify, some users on social media report seeing the work of the ULEZ Blade Runners to target facial recognition cameras throughout varying locations.
Middle East: Patience remains tested as the world awaits whatever escalation is to come in the region. Some sources (probably originating from the White House) claim that the massive attack that is expected will not come, as Iran has decided to de-escalate the situation from their end.
AC: Though this is extremely unconfirmed rumor at this time (and would be a fantastic opportunity for Iran to regain the element of surprise), this is a factor to consider nonetheless. What is undeniable is that Iran has waited long enough to ensure that Israeli defenses are at their peak readiness, and that American forces have poured into the region. Though Iran has a history of waiting to conduct attacks at the precise moment where their adversaries are both ready, and the element of surprise is lost, the Iranians will have to do something to save face within their own nation. Iranian decision-makers in the Ayatollah’s sphere may genuinely think that this war will go nuclear if they respond significantly. Generally speaking, when Israel gets genuinely threatened or backed into a corner in any way, things get serious rather quickly, so the Iranians might not be willing to gamble with this potential at the current time, even though this is significantly embarrassing for them.
Consequently, it’s hard to imagine what Iran will do that will present an adequate, but not over-the-top retaliation to Israel. Nevertheless, even if Iran chooses to take the face-saving route, any escalation in the region is likely to cause even more problems later.
-HomeFront-
Southeast: Flooding throughout the region continues as Tropical Storm Debby tracks inland. Substantial rainfall continues to be forecasted throughout North and South Carolina over the next few days. Severe flooding has been reported throughout Charleston and the lowlands of South Carolina.
Space: Boeing continues to face growing criticism following the widening scandal surrounding their Starliner project. In June, Boeing launched two crewmembers onboard their Starliner spacecraft on what was originally scheduled to be an eight-day mission to the International Space Station (ISS). During this mission, multiple failures with the Starliner’s propulsion system resulted in the crew being stranded onboard the ISS until the multiple failures could be investigated. Yesterday, NASA stated that a return via the plagued Starliner would be the best option, but talks are ongoing with SpaceX to potentially evacuate this crew on the next Dragon mission which would mean a return to Earth sometimes next year, if the Starliner can’t be fixed in time.
AC: So far, this incident is adding to Boeing’s woes more significantly than one might imagine. Indicators are stacking up that suggest the problems facing the Starliner system are not simple issues or freak-accidents, but rather very serious design flaws that could potentially impact the entire project.
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Analyst Comments: In the United Kingdom, the government is learning the harsh lesson of why tyrannizing their adversaries (i.e. their own citizenry) over the years, only provides valuable training for when things get serious. The Blade Runners began targeting ULEZ cameras for the ideological reasons surrounding opposition to taxes, the climate agenda, mass surveillance, etc…which very importantly are all somewhat different goals. Just in this one example, the U.K. government created the perfect training conditions for opposition to them, opposition that is now playing out in the streets. Individuals learned to set aside their differences to achieve a common goal (i.e. the removal of ULEZ cameras), and in doing so they learned valuable lessons such as how to work with a team of varying political beliefs, countersurveillance tactics, and logistics (to move the seized cameras for dumping/destruction later). And perhaps most importantly, doing all of the above with a day job and a normal life to maintain.
British authorities are likely completely oblivious to the conditions that they have created themselves, as demonstrated by the gross imbecility in thinking that doubling-down on tactics that already don’t work will somehow magically become effective if repeated often enough.
Analyst: S2A1
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