The Wire - August 5, 2024

//The Wire//2230Z August 5, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MARKET VOLITILITY STRIKES GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS. BANGLADESH OVERTHROWS GOVERNMENT, PM FLEES COUNTRY. RIOTS CONTINUE IN U.K.//
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-International Events-
Global: Multiple stock exchanges halted trading on several indexes as markets experienced severe volatility upon opening Monday morning. In the U.S. the NASDAQ dropped by 1,200+ points on opening (which is reportedly the largest drop ever recorded) before recovering somewhat by midday. Many brokerages (to include Fidelity, Charles Schwab/TD Ameritrade, E-Trade, Vanguard, and Robinhood) mysteriously reported cyber incidents and communications outages, which prevented customers from accessing their accounts at the crucial moments of the market opening. AC: Whether this was an intentional degradation or not is right now a matter of speculation. However, as a reminder, these institutions are known for suspiciously-timed outages. Robinhood in particular has a history of openly and deliberately halting trading internally, which they did back in 2021 during the GME scandal. As such, if there is hubris to be had within the financial sector, it will arise from the investors who are blind to the suspicious circumstances that everyone else sees clearly. At some point, but especially when it comes to the long-term reflections of the financial sector, common sense is a more valuable tool than the micro-analysis of a specific incident.
Middle East: As the world awaits the next major escalation, conflict continues as Hezbollah strikes Israeli units in the Golan Heights, the West Bank, and varying locations in the North. Hezbollah has specifically stated that this latest missile barrage is not the official response, but rather routine targeting. However, most governments around the world have either directly stated or insinuated that an Iranian attack will take place Monday night. AC: It’s not clear as to what intelligence indicates tonight being selected for the Iranian counterattack. Whatever intel it is, is clearly good enough to cause a heightened state of readiness for Western forces throughout the region.
United Kingdom: Mass unrest continues as governmental responses to demonstrations and riots alike has worsened the situation to exceptionally grave levels of severity. So far, riots have been reported in the following cities in England: Southport, Sunderland, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Rotherham, Leeds, Hull, Bolton, Liverpool, Birmingham, Stoke, Nottingham, Bristol, and London. Riots have also been reported in Northern Ireland, mostly confined to Belfast. Limited actions have also taken place (mostly low-level demonstrations) throughout the Republic of Ireland as well.
Riots throughout England have remained unpredictable, but more kinetic in some areas than others. In Rotherham, a hotel used to house illegal migrants was set on fire, causing those within to evacuate. In Southport (where the riots started due to the stabbing attack there), significant efforts are underway to target those voicing outrage over the attacks. As such, much of the police presence there is not dedicated to quelling unrest, but rather to arrest those posting about the events on social media. Similar censorship efforts are underway in Sunderland, where riots have remained intense. In Liverpool a library that allegedly replaced traditionally English classic works with Islamic texts was set alight, along with a food bank that primarily served migrant communities. Various Middle-Eastern and African businesses and storefronts have been vandalized throughout the nation as tit-for-tat factional violence becomes severe in most major cities.
South America: Unrest in Venezuela continues as the crackdown on dissent widens. As Maduro’s control of Venezuela becomes more solidified, resistance has begun to move out of the streets, and under the ground. Large pro-Maduro demonstrations have further strained Venezuelan society as those who voted against Maduro (or otherwise voiced support for his opposition) fear the retaliation that Maduro has promised for those opposing him. Criminal groups such as Tren de Aragua have vowed to continue the resistance to Maduro’s reign, however the effectiveness (and end-goals) of their actions remains questionable. AC: Maduro will probably retain power in Venezuela for some time, however these latest election shenanigans likely cost him prestige somewhat among Venezuelans. Now, the average Venezuelan citizen has an idea of how substantial opposition to Maduro is, and what techniques worked (or didn’t work) during this election season. As such Maduro likely had to tip more of his hand than he would have liked, even if he comes out of this election season still ruling the country.
South Asia: Overnight, demonstrators conducted a coup in Bangladesh, with thousands of protesters overwhelming security and breaching the perimeter of Parliament and other government buildings. Prime Minister Hasina has resigned and fled by helicopter to India as her residence was overrun by rioters.
Far East: North Korea has made significant developments along the DMZ over the past few weeks. Construction and de-foresting of areas on the North Korean side of the DMZ continue amid reports that DPRK forces have maneuvered additional missile batteries closer to the border. AC: This is probably more posturing/ceremonial than anything else; even though tensions have been rising on the Korean Peninsula over the past few years, this is likely not a prelude to anything more than routine posturing efforts.
Red Sea/HOA: Houthi forces downed another American MQ-9 drone over the weekend, bringing the total shot down since the October escalation to EIGHT.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. – Preparations continue for the latest escalation of the widening war in the Middle East. Over the past few days, the Pentagon has confirmed increasing the force posture throughout the CENTCOM AOR, including the deployment of additional missile defense batteries.
Michigan: A train carrying CO2 derailed in Adrian on Friday. At least one train car leaked its contents of CO2 following the derailment. No injuries were reported, and the HAZMAT concerns have largely been negligible for citizens as the derailment occurred in an industrial area. AC: So far, the cause of the derailment has not been determined.
Iowa: A train carrying coal derailed near Marshalltown Sunday evening. Approximately 38 cars derailed near 230th street, east of town. AC: The cause of this derailment has not been determined.
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Analyst Comments: As events develop around the world, it is important to remember the societal shift that has already occurred with regards to what is socially acceptable to discuss. Analysis that would have been unthinkable years ago might now be an appropriate and accurate reflection of the strategic situation at hand. In short, the frog has begun to notice the temperature of the water.
As such, in the United Kingdom, there are very few ways to describe the shocking behavior of the U.K. government in neutral terms. This situation will be offensive to describe no matter what. Even if neutral language were possible, the extremely widespread nature of the riots (and the factional/racial nature of such) is hard to encapsulate into one succinct idea. Are the riots, violence, and destruction conducted by the historically least-likely group to riot (generally speaking, conservative leaning, ethnically British of Anglo-Saxon heritage) the result of agitators and malign actors, or is this a reflection of a breaking point being reached? In other words, cultural perspective matters: When Britons who revolt at the social upheaval of improperly queuing at Tesco begin to burn down migrant centers, it would be wise to observe the seriousness of the situation.
What is more clear is that the actions by government to protect minority-group aggressors and selectively-police peaceful-protesters and rioters alike, have brought the United Kingdom to a breaking point. The situation is rapidly getting out of hand, and the PM doubling-down on targeting the victims of knife crime, instead of the mostly Islamic and African migrant groups/communities openly calling for (and committing) these crimes, is inflaming the situation to levels beyond what many thought was possible. There is very little chance the statements made by PM Starmer are tone-deaf at this point, having been perceived by most to be a deliberate attack on the ethnic British population. Consequently, many have theorized that PM Starmer’s days are numbered as most political power-players reassess whether or not this situation is salvageable without a change of government.
In any case, this conflict is very complex. Of the few media outlets telling the truth about these events, virtually none of them will discuss the tensions that have been bubbling for years. Most will cover the events from the perspective of those who have simply had enough with the violence originating from recent migrations at the behest of their government. However, a larger and more important detail to remember is that this conflict is the result of deeper-seated tensions whereby ethnic Britons believe that they are being replaced in their own home, and their ancestral culture destroyed in favor of the obscene (as has openly been a political goal of government for some time). Somewhat ironically, PM Starmer is correct in thinking that much of this angst is racial/cultural in nature, because for many, it is.
However, conflicts NEVER occur or arise in a vacuum, there are always historical factors impacting current events. Right now, Starmer’s government is trying to manipulate these long-standing sentiments in his favor, and paint the picture as being more black-and-white than it is. The reality of events being livestreamed to the world very obviously counter these narratives. PM Starmer has stated that the opposition to his totalitarian policies comes only from “far-right thugs”. In reality, this is not true. Several prominent Sikh and Hindu leaders/communities have essentially indicated they want no part of this, but are still against Starmer’s selective policing which has led to their own communities being on the receiving end of violence originating from Islamic groups. Similarly, Britons who are of foreign descent (but have been living in the U.K. for one or two generations) have struck back against Starmer’s government as well, which sometimes has taken the rather confusing and paradoxical nature of ethnic minorities siding with predominantly White protest groups. At the moment, anything goes with regards to local politics sometimes outweighing larger movements.
As radical as these thoughts may be when viewed through the lens of yesteryear, this is the uncomfortable reality that the U.K. (and western civilization at large) is facing. Ignoring these unpleasant observations was a major contributing factor to these events transpiring in the first place. This ignorance has directly resulted in a factor that lies outside the thought processes of the elite, which is the growing list of concerns present among taxpayers regarding lower-level authorities throwing off all pretenses of neutrality, and actively seeking to crack down on dissident speech instead of the armed mobs attacking citizens. Even PM Starmer’s statements have raised these questions, whereas he stated that attacks on Mosques or Islamic sites will not be tolerated…but since he did not say attacks on anyone would not be tolerated, this small remark has been perceived to be a de facto admission that some attacks would be tolerated. Once again, the media coverage of this pandemonium has not made the situation better, the BBC having given the British Isles their “fiery but mostly peaceful protest” moment. Most government-sponsored media groups have stated that the violence is only coming from “far-right” groups, while quite literally showing live footage of Islamic mobs armed with machetes, swords, and clubs.
Though the media frenzy has complicated the situation, some (possibly isolated) video clips taken by citizens on the streets (and circulating social media) have not made the situation better either. In at least once case, video evidence appears to show a Police Liaison officer in Stoke urging an armed Islamic mob to cache their weapons at the local Mosque (and/or in their vehicles) before heading out to demonstrate. While many will take this as an indication of de-escalation, in the fog-of-war, most will interpret this as an indication and/or confirmation both that many Islamic groups counter-rioting are armed, and using Mosques as weapon’s caches as endorsed by police. Again, this is an indicator, not definitive proof of the much larger situation, and the perception of these video clips has already stirred up even more angst in response. In a state of conflict, sometimes the smallest unconfirmed indicator must be weighted more heavily, out of an abundance of analytical caution. In a nation where many people are being arrested right now for Facebook posts about this event, but armed mobs of people calling for the murder of ethnic Britons are not just allowed, but protected by the police and encouraged to conceal evidence, this small detail alone should cement the significance of what is going on. Either way, the video clips circulating on social media regarding the undeniable police response in general are not making the situation any better.
What the “far-right” (by British government standards, i.e. most of the ethnic Anglo population) is doing, is organizing far more than just riots. Walkouts and mass banking runs are all being considered as means of protest by those who disapprove of governmental policies, but do not want to resort to violence and/or rioting. As such, it’s highly likely that the chaos within the U.K. will not be resolved simply, easily, or quickly.
In the financial world, the high volatility among financial markets is likely due to two major factors. The first domino to fall was related to financial decisions in Japan last week. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 0.25%, trying to save their own Yen. This move was a major catalyst for this week’s events as it came after 15 years of extremely small corrections. The second major factor influencing market volatility for Japan (and thus the rest of the world) is the potential for WWIII going hot in the Middle East. Japan has always been historically vulnerable to oil supply chains, and the conflict heating up in the Middle East is likely to result in kinetic actions in the Strait of Hormuz, thus cutting of a significant portion of Japan’s oil supply. Whether or not this will happen remains to be seen, but the speculation alone is enough to influence the market on the heels of a rate hike. This domino falling pushed other markets down as well, such as Taiwan’s exchange, then Korea, then the rest of the world. Of note, many financial analysts assess that while today’s market re-adjustment is serious, it’s not “the big one” that everyone is expecting. A much larger financial crash still remains theorized for the near future (probably next year), though the actions by the Fed (and Congress) will be exceptionally telling over the next few months.
Of note, another speculatory detail that has influence over the market at large are individual defense contractor stocks, some of which spiked in value in pre-market trading. In short, when Lockheed Martin’s stock spikes, it’s likely due to the market expecting a very large war to generate revenue for defense contractors. As such, the omen of defense companies suddenly becoming more valuable can (and probably does) influence the rest of the already-heavily-manipulated markets more than most realize.
Analyst: S2A1
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