Class 16: Binomial Sins!

Lesson 16: Binomial Sins!

We deduced probability can be math; we deduced its functional form. We deduced it can be represented by numbers, and we discovered, via more deduction, what these numbers can be. With that, we deduced our first formal model, the hypergeometric model.

Today we deduce an APPROXIMATION to that model. And we warn, as vigorously as we can, against treating that APPROXIMATION as anything other than that. If we do not, we risk the Deadly Sin of Reification - a sin rife in science. It's so common we can call it the plague of science.

HOMEWORK: With B = M red balls, N total balls, and so N - M white balls, and with R_i = red drawn on i-th draw, and L = "At least one red in k previous draws", what is Pr(R_k+1|BL)?

All questions will be answered in the following Monday's lecture.

Written lecture: https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/52506/
https://wmbriggs.substack.com/

Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/

Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science