China's trade surpluses soar to new records as Vietnam hits production ceilings

Video: China's trade surpluses soar to new records as Vietnam hits production ceilings 隨著越南達到生產上限，中國貿易順差飆升至新紀錄.

The author is a supply chain manager based in Shandong Province for 10 years. Prior to that he was a US military intelligence officer. His boots are on the ground in China for 10 years. He helps to debunk a lot of misinformation about China. He has quite clearly pointed out in many of his past videos that no country could replace China. iPhone had tried to leave China but failed. 作者是一位在山東省工作了10年的供應鏈經理。在此之前，他是一名美國軍事情報官員。他的靴子已經落地中國十年了. 他幫助揭穿了許多有關中國的錯誤訊息。他在過去的許多影片中都非常明確地指出，今天不管你多麼不喜歡中國，但沒有國家可以取代中國。 iPhone曾經試圖離開中國但失敗了.

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/vietnam-shapes-key-winner-us-china-trade-war
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1127701/Vietnam-exports-boom-as-China-shipments-to-US-slump
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3271391/vietnam-losing-its-appeal-chinas-manufacturers-bypassing-us-tariffs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-12/china-exports-rise-for-third-straight-month-in-boost-to-economy
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us-hikes-china-tariffs-imports-soar-china-reliant-vietnam-2024-05-16/

Hundreds of companies moved final product assembly to Vietnam since 2018, in response to high US tariffs imposed on Chinese-made goods. Vietnam seemed especially attractive because of its large population, low labor costs, and its proximity to China's supply chains.

But supply chain directors were nervous about two major issues. First, the most important economic driver for Vietnamese investment was the tariffs against China. What if the tariffs go away under a new administration, or are lowered through negotiations?

Second, Vietnam's growth would eventually hit an upper limit, as costs for land, labor, and other scarce resources rise. Here again, the 25% tariff rate is itself a boundary, as companies facing larger cost increases would simply buy from China instead, and thereby save money by paying the tariff.

That may be the point where companies with operations in Vietnam now find themselves. Reports from key business executives in-country, and even officials from Chambers of Commerce, indicate that Vietnam's rising costs no longer justify its consideration as a supply chain alternative to China.

This comes after news that China just recorded its largest trade surplus on record, over $99 billion for the month of June.

自 2018 年以來，數百家公司將最終產品組裝轉移到越南，以應對美國對中國製造的商品徵收高額關稅。 越南似乎特別有吸引力，因為其人口眾多、勞動成本低廉且靠近中國的供應鏈。

但供應鏈主管對兩個主要問題感到緊張。 首先，越南投資最重要的經濟驅動力是對中國的關稅。 如果關稅在新政府領導下取消或透過談判降低怎麼辦？

其次，隨著土地、勞動力和其他稀缺資源成本的上升，越南的成長最終將達到上限。 在這裡，25%的關稅本身就是一個界限，因為面臨更大成本成長的企業只會從中國購買，從而透過支付關稅來節省資金。

這可能就是在越南開展業務的公司現在面臨的困境。 國內主要企業高管甚至商會官員的報告表明，越南不斷上升的成本不再證明其有理由考慮作為中國的供應鏈替代品。

先前有消息稱，中國 6 月剛錄得有史以來最大的貿易順差，超過 990 億美元.