Russia continues deepening relations with North Korea and Iran in exchange for lethal weaponry

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) observe that Russia continues to deepen bilateral relations with Iran and North Korea in exchange for the provision of lethal aid to the Russian military for use in Ukraine.

The analysts see multiple reasons to believe that there is a correlation between Moscow helping Pyongyang and Tehran on the one hand, and its acquisition of lethal weaponry to be used against Ukraine on the other hand.

One example includes Iranian state-affiliated media outlet Mehr News Agency, which reported on 23 July that Iran will launch its Hod Hod and Kosar satellites into low earth orbit from an unspecified Russian station in October 2024.

Furthermore, Bloomberg reported on 25 July that South Korea’s Bank of Korea estimated that North Korea’s gross domestic product grew 3.1 percent in 2023 compared to 2022 after annual contractions since 2019. The Bank of Korea estimated that North Korea’s heavy and chemical industries, particularly the production of iron, steel, copper, nickel, and aluminum, grew the most in 2023 by 8.1 percent. South Korean Defense Minister Shin Wonsik previously stated that Russia’s provision of food to North Korea in exchange for weapons helped North Korea stabilize prices and likely boosted North Korean domestic manufacturing. North Korea and Russia have been allies since North Korea's founding after World War II and have drawn even closer since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as Western powers have stepped up sanctions against Moscow.

North Korea has reportedly transferred as many as 4.8 million artillery shells to Russia, and Iran has supplied Shahed-136/131 drones and components to Russia.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion, the Kremlin has directly benefited from increased military-technical partnerships with China, Iran, and North Korea, with these countries mitigating sanctions- and war-induced pressures on Russia’s defense industry. Combined, the three have supplied Russia with much needed dual-use items, arms, and weapon parts. While these goods have generally been of lower quality than their Western alternatives, they have nonetheless kept the Russian Armed Forces relatively well supplied. This has allowed Russia to maintain consistent intensity of attacks on Ukraine and has contributed to Russia’s battlefield successes.