The Wire - July 29, 2024

//The Wire//2130Z July 29, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ISRAELI OPERATIONS IN LEBANON IMPENDING. VENEZUELAN ELECTION RAISES CORRUPTION CONCERNS. U.K. STABBING ATTACK STRIKES SOUTHPORT. OIL SPILL STRIKES LOUISIANA.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: Indications and warnings of potential Israeli combat operations in Lebanon are mounting. This morning the U.S. Embassy in Beirut began making preparations for unrest involving U.S. citizens. A State Department message urged U.S. citizens in Lebanon to enroll in the STEP program, and “prepare to shelter in place for long periods of time” in the event that evacuation via commercial aviation is not available. This morning some commercial airlines have delayed (or even cancelled) some routine flights into Beirut due to the risks of a widening conflict.
South America: Election irregularities in Venezuela have increased tensions throughout the region. Over the weekend, Venezuela’s latest round of elections has resulted in widespread claims of election fraud as President Nicolas Maduro comes out on top, allegedly winning 51% of the vote.
The international response to this election has been mixed, but largely negative. The United States has condemned what the State Department claims is obvious election tampering. Argentina has made similar condemnations and has refused to officially recognize the results. In Venezuela, protests and demonstrations are mounting. Unrest is also building among the Venezuelan diaspora within the United States, many of which have organized demonstrations in several cities around the US.
AC: Many of the instances of election discrepancies revolve around votes for Maduro mysteriously showing up in the middle of the night. However, this election was openly influenced from the start as Maduro’s original opposition candidate was banned from running in the first place.
United Kingdom: A mass stabbing attack occurred in Southport this morning when an assailant entered a yoga studio and attacked a youth dance class within the building. 2x children were killed in the attack, and 6x children and 2x adults remain in critical condition. The attacker was apprehended at the scene. AC: Few details have been released on the assailant due to the attacker allegedly being 17 years old.
-HomeFront-
Louisiana: A crude oil spill originating from the Crescent Midstream Crude Oil Facility occurred over the weekend in the Lafourche Bayou. As of yet, the amount of oil spilled has not been determined, and authorities within Lafourche Parish Water District No. 1 have issued a request for locals to conserve water. AC: As of this report, authorities claim that no contamination has entered an adjacent water treatment facility. However, locals suggest the spill is more significant than authorities are letting on, and has heavily contaminated the local area.
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Analyst Comments: If the actions of the U.S. State Department (combined with commercial airlines canceling flights) are any indicator, an Israeli operation in Lebanon is likely impending soon. As a reminder, the complexity of the overall strategic situation in the North could result in any number of operations conducted by Israel. Over the past few weeks, airstrikes (from Israel) and rocket strikes (via Hezbollah) have been intensifying in the Golan Heights. At this point, some may consider a de facto state of war to already be in place. However, one of the major escalations the international community has been expecting is Israeli combat operations on the ground (i.e. a ground invasion of Lebanon). Though nothing is certain yet, what limited ground operations do occur will probably be framed as a counterterrorism clearance operation of varying locations along the border just inside Lebanon. On the other hand, Israel may seek to intensify the bombing campaign in Lebanon for the time being, instead of committing to a large-scale operation reminiscent of the advance conducted in the days leading up to the encirclement of Gaza City.
Whatever the Israeli operation looks like is anyone’s guess; based on what Israel plans to do, combat operations could be imminent, or still weeks away from occurring. What is far more certain is that this will look vastly different from what has happened so far in Gaza (and even the West Bank). Nearly every strategic factor will be different (i.e. the political situation, the operational environment, the terrain, logistics, population density, international agreements and alliances, etc). As such, Israel will not be able to cut-and-paste what they did in Gaza, into the Golan Heights or southern Lebanon.
Analyst: S2A1
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